Maybank Securities (Thailand) has recommended investors see the recent correction in Thai tourism stocks as a buying opportunity rather than a reason for panic selling. The negative impact from the ongoing Middle East (ME) conflict is unlikely to be as severe as initially anticipated, with the market already digesting much of the bad news.
According to Maybank’s base case, if the current conflict lasts three months, Thailand is expected to record a decline of roughly 1.4 million tourist arrivals, totaling about 34 million visitors in 2026. While hotels are grappling with the challenge of identifying alternative markets—Oceania and South Asia may offer some offsetting demand—these regions are not expected to compensate for all the lost ME inflows.
Due to the shifting dynamics, Maybank has adjusted its top sector pick to Airports of Thailand (AOT), citing its resilience to ME tensions and its potential to benefit from increased transit and transfer passengers, as many tourists reroute to avoid ME hubs. AOT is poised to capitalize on demand from travelers diverting from Middle Eastern transit points, as restoring confidence among ME hub users may take time.
Maybank’s top pick among hotel stocks is The Erawan Group (ERW), thanks to its earnings growth prospects—especially from its HOP INN brand—and attractive valuation. The main risks identified by Maybank include prolonged geopolitical tensions and an increase in hotel supply in Bangkok, which could weigh on sector profitability.
The report also notes that both Minor International (MINT) and Central Plaza Hotel (CENTEL) have notable exposure in the ME region. CENTEL operates one hotel in the ME, contributing approximately 20% of its earnings in 2025, while MINT manages 25 properties across the UAE and Qatar. While these properties contribute only a small portion to overall earnings, this exposure could restrict future hotel expansion opportunities in these strategic markets.
Historically, similar geopolitical shocks in tourist destinations led to average tourism stock declines of 9–14%, with prices typically bottoming out after 11–12 trading sessions. During past incidents, maximum drawdowns ranged between 12% and 24%, according to Maybank.
Maybank recommends a ‘Buy’ rating on AOT with a target price of THB 60.00, MINT with a target price of THB 30.50, and ERW with a target price of THB 3.60. Asset World Corp (AWC) and CENTEL are both rated ‘Hold’, with target prices of THB 2.35 and THB 34.50, respectively.
