Analysts Expect Minimal Tariff Impact on Thai Stocks, Highlight Opportunities in Domestic Plays

The United States Trade Representative (USTR) has proposed additional import tariffs under Section 301 on 60 countries and economic zones, including Thailand, citing concerns about forced labor and product exemptions under Annex A.

Suphajee Suthumpun, Deputy Prime Minister and Minister of Commerce, stated that Thailand already has robust measures to prevent forced labor, though it lacks specific laws on imports from countries without such standards.

According to Arada Fuangtong, Director General of the Department of Foreign Trade, affected countries must request to participate in the USTR’s comment process by June 22, 2026, with written comments due July 6, 2026. These comments should address tariff suitability, proposed product adjustments, and exemptions under Annex A. Public hearings will begin July 7, 2026, followed by a post-hearing rebuttal period until July 12, before final measures are set.

Suphajee noted that several countries facing a 10% tariff do not have international forced labor laws but hold existing Agreements on Reciprocal Trade (ART) with the U.S. Thailand aims to conclude its ART negotiations by the end of June, with relevant agencies already making significant progress.

InnovestX Securities (INVX) commented that the new USTR tariffs may put short-term pressure on investment sentiment, but fundamental impacts and competitiveness risks remain limited, as most Asian rivals face similar levies. The effective additional rate is expected to be around 2.5 percentage points, given that a provisional 10% tariff already applies.

INVX recommends selective buying of both Domestic & Laggard Value Play stocks—large caps less impacted by tariffs and benefitting from domestic stimulus—such as CPALL, CPN, GLOBAL, BEM, and TRUE. Another recommended group includes New Normal stocks in S-curve industries like clean energy, industrial estates, and solar solutions, such as GULF, GPSC, BGRIM, WHA, AMATA, SCC, BANPU, HMPRO, GLOBAL, and GUNKUL.

Bualuang Securities said marketwide impact from the tariffs should be limited, as key Thai exports such as electronics and pharmaceuticals may be exempt. Excluding the electronics sector, U.S. revenues for most listed firms are under 0.5% of the total figure. The most vulnerable firms are those with high U.S. sales: ITC (58%), TU (40%), STGT (20%), and STA (12%).

Additionally, any market corrections could offer opportunities to accumulate stocks with strong fundamentals and dividends, with GULF, WHAUP, KTB, SCB, and MOSHI highlighted for investment during volatility.