Mr. Koraphat Vorachet, Assistant Director and Division Head of Research at Krungsri Securities (KSS), stated in the “Kaohoon” program on March 19, 2026, that the war in Iran has unexpectedly escalated, after Iran struck energy infrastructures in other gulf countries in retaliation of the U.S.-Israel attack on Iranian gas infrastructure, which raised concerns over oil prices after the Strait of Hormuz tension has partially subsided.
He noted that while there are volatilities in crude prices, the actual prices have not sharply spiked.
Mr. Koraphat remarked that the conflict may only last for two months, as the market is unlikely to survive a long war after having sharply plunged in the first week of the war. Furthermore, the U.S. will hold a midterm election later this year, with primary voting beginning in late March. Meanwhile, Trump’s popularity has plummeted, prompting him to find ways to secure at least a limited victory ahead of the campaigning season, especially as May is a campaigning month for the swing states.
Regarding the Federal Reserve, Mr. Koraphat disclosed that the results came out as expected, with the Fed opting to maintain the interest rate, while projecting a softer outlook for labor market and inflation, and ignoring a short-term hike in energy costs, as it has no significant impact on inflation.
Mr. Koraphat also highlighted that the attack on gulf states energy infrastructures has bolstered the Asian refinery by hastening its rebound, which was previously forecasted to happen in 2H26, as their earnings was slated to improve due to surplus feedstock and wider spreads. The rising oil prices has also increased refiner’s gross refining margin (GRM), as the production capacity has tightened due to heightened demand.
If the oil prices remain at above $95 per barrel for a longer period of time, like in 2022, it will become a downward pressure on the Thai market, affecting all sectors as profit in the petrochemical sector cannot offset the energy costs. However, should the war end quickly, it will become a key positive factor for the market. Mr. Koraphat also revealed that according to KSS assessment, the net effect of oil prices on Thailand’s GDP is only at 2.9%, roughly the same level as other Asian countries, due to Thailand domestic oil supply.
On fund flow, Mr. Koraphat forecasts foreign fund inflow to return after the war, since the Fed will eventually reduce policy rate as the recent upturn in U.S. economy is coming from the AI CAPEX cycle, but the real economy and inflation are still trending downward.
For investment strategy, Mr. Koraphat recommends energy-related stocks (petrochemical and refinery), as the industry cycle is on the uptrend due to the war, while the war itself is unlikely to protect and affect the feedstock. Meanwhile, war-related crude premiums are likely to last up to two quarters before gradually declining. Mr. Koraphat favors petrochemical over refinery, recommending PTTGC and IVL, which will enter MSCI Index in May.
For stocks with a domestic-play theme, Mr. Koraphat highlighted tourism and power plants as a megatheme. He recommends speculative moves while the war is ongoing, but he estimated that these sectors will see rallies as the conflict concludes. Industrial estate, infratech, and ICT sector are also featured, with accumulate buy recommendation. Finance and retail stocks are anticipated to slowly recover due to weak purchasing power, with rate cutting trend getting put off to the second half of the year.
