FSS International Investment Advisory wrote in its investment strategy for April, stating that global risk assets are coming under pressure from surging oil prices amid the ongoing war, which also raises stagflation concerns and drives bond yields higher, squeezing valuations. While Thailand’s economy faces downside risks, the energy sector provides critical earnings support for the SET Index, leaving limited upside from the current target of 1,470 points. FSS recommends a Barbell strategy blending defensive consumer staples with stocks likely to benefit from any easing in geopolitical tensions.
The top stock picks for April 2026 are CPALL, CPF, GULF, KTB, and PRM.
CPALL (BUY): FSS believes concerns about CPALL as a proxy for domestic consumption are overblown and, in fact, expects the company to benefit from inflation due to its strong bargaining power. Risks from the Middle East war are projected to increase costs (transport, oil, electricity) and pressure CPRAM margins via higher packaging costs. A worst-case scenario sees a 7% earnings hit in 2026, assuming high diesel and packaging costs. However, QTD SSS for 1Q26 grew 2% YoY on hotter weather and new product launches, and consolidated 1Q26 profit is expected to rise 5-10% YoY. FSS maintains a profit growth estimate of 5.5% YoY for 2026 and reiterates a BUY rating with a target price of THB 60, as the share price is down 12% since the conflict began but the earnings impact is contained.
CPF (BUY): Management targets revenue growth in 2026, driven by sales volume growth of 5-8%, especially in Vietnam’s swine and poultry segments. Gross margin should remain close to 2025 levels (16.9%), supported by flat-to-lower input prices and growing value-added product sales. FSS trimmed 2026 net profit by 12% to THB 17.8 billion, reflecting weaker Chinese pork prices and a slightly lower margin assumption. While chicken exports to the Middle East have a minor revenue contribution, higher oil prices could impact profitability via increased logistics costs. FSS maintains a BUY call at a reduced target price of THB 24, believing demand for essential foods will hold up even in a high oil price environment.
GULF (BUY): GULF’s 1Q26 earnings are expected to accelerate, supported by 649MW of new solar capacity, improved profit at ADVANC (as low-cost packages expire), and stronger US power asset performance. Higher KBANK dividend income after GULF raised its stake will also support profit, with 2026-27 net earnings seen at THB 31-34 billion. Additional solar capacity and further gains at ADVANC and US data center-linked demand are key growth drivers. FSS raises its SOTP-based target to THB 67.50, reflecting higher market values for ADVANC and KBANK stakes, and maintains a positive outlook.
KTB (BUY): KTB aims to maintain a long-term ROE above 10%, with 2026 targets including 0-2% loan growth and a NIM of 2.35-2.50%. The bank’s asset quality remains strong and its conservative NPL provisioning policy continues. FSS raises its 2026-28 earnings estimates by 1.3-5.6% and increases the target price to THB 36.40 (PBV 1.05x), offering over 6% dividend yield. KTB remains a top pick among banks.
PRM (BUY): PRM’s Middle East shipping operations face no operational risk or additional costs amid the conflict. The company plans to add five vessels in 2026 to serve growing regional demand, and the transition to hybrid crew boats is underway. Normalized 1Q26 earnings are expected to rise both QoQ and YoY, and full-year projections are maintained. PRM will pay a second-half 2025 dividend of THB 0.25 per share, with XD on 6 May 2026. FSS reaffirms a BUY with a THB 9.50 target.
