Following the analyst meeting on May 21, CP ALL Public Company Limited (SET: CPALL) executives maintain a conservative outlook for the second half of 2026, noting steady consumer purchasing power but highlighting key areas to watch.
The company is monitoring increased costs, particularly higher oil prices—where every 10 baht rise impacts sales by 0.15%—and potential electricity rate hikes expected in the last four months of the year, with every 15% increase costing approximately 100 million baht per month. Additionally, the ongoing impact of the government’s “Khon La Khrueng” co-payment scheme remains under review.
Despite concerns about cost pressures, Finansia Syrus Securities believes fallout from geopolitical conflicts remains manageable, supported by the company’s logistics efficiency adjustments. Electricity cost concerns are mainly concentrated in the year’s final quarter. On the upside, CPALL is considered an “inflationary winner,” able to mitigate inflation effects by raising average selling prices (ASP).
Other income remains robust, with continued strength from promotions and successful campaigns driving ongoing supplier support seen since 1Q26. Regarding its virtual bank project, management emphasized regulatory compliance over strategic expansion.
In Cambodia, CPALL has scaled back its operations to 63 branches as of 1Q26 (down from 125 in 3Q25), and management remains in a wait-and-see mode. Some assets can be redeployed, limiting any impairment risks.
Same-store sales (SSS) are expected to grow by 1-2% in 2Q26, benefitting from sustained hot weather, with CPAXT sales remaining steady. Net profit for 2Q26 is projected to increase by approximately 10% year-on-year, supported by steady sales and gross profit margins. Full-year 2026 net profit is forecast to grow by 10.9% year-on-year.
Currently, CPALL trades at 13.4x 2026E P/E—slightly below the retail sector average of 14-15x. Finansia Syrus maintains a “Buy” rating with a target price of 63 baht.
