On Tuesday at 10:28 AM (Bangkok time), the share price of PTT Exploration and Production Public Company Limited (SET: PTTEP) surged by 1.91% or THB 3.00 to THB 160.00, with a trading value of THB 985.02 million.
Liberator Securities has upgraded its recommendation for PTTEP from ‘Hold’ to ‘Buy’, raising the 2026 target price to THB 175.00 per share, up from the previous THB 133.00. This reflects an upward revision based on the rising trend in crude oil prices, expected to have a positive impact on the company’s performance in the coming quarters.
According to the analysis, PTTEP’s core operating profit for the first quarter of 2026 is anticipated to recover to THB 16,039 million, an increase of 56% compared to the previous quarter. This positive momentum is attributed to a higher average selling price and increased sales volume. However, net profit is expected to decrease to THB 7,753 million, a decline of 47% quarter-on-quarter, primarily due to the impact of special items.
In terms of operational performance, sales volume in 1Q26 is projected to rise by 1% quarter-on-quarter to 547.5 thousand barrels of oil equivalent per day (KBOED), exceeding the company’s previous guidance. This is mainly due to unrest in the Middle East, prompting a ramp-up of gas production in the Gulf of Thailand to compensate for reduced imports.
The average gas selling price is anticipated to increase to $5.88 per MMBTU. Despite a discount on crude oil prices compared to Dubai crude of about $2–3 per barrel, and a special discount this quarter of $10–11 per barrel owing to volatility, the average overall selling price is expected to rise to $45.26 per barrel of oil equivalent (BOE). The sales mix is estimated to be 74% natural gas and 26% oil.
Production costs are expected to decrease to $29.80 per barrel, thanks to lower exploration expenses, reduced maintenance costs from deferring scheduled shutdowns, and lower administrative expenses. Additionally, PTTEP is expected to recognize approximately $20 million in profit sharing from joint ventures, including the Touat project, Seagreen Wind Power Plant, and the SK408 project.
Although PTTEP’s first-quarter performance will likely soften due to special items, the company is expected to benefit from rising oil prices for the remainder of the year. As ongoing instability in the Middle East is projected to keep oil prices elevated, the analyst maintains its investment strategy, recommending short-term trading in PTTEP to capitalize on the continued upward trend in oil prices.
