Thailand’s commerce sector posted a modest rebound in same-store sales growth (SSSG) in March 2026, according to Tisco Securities’ latest State of Shopping report. SSSG rose 0.7%, largely driven by a return to growth in the retail sector and a narrower decline in home improvement stores. However, Tisco cautions that the gains are temporary, attributing much of the upside to consumers and business operators stockpiling ahead of potential further Middle East conflict escalation and expected cost increases.
March brought welcome relief in the retail sector, where SSSG improved to 2%, reversing consecutive declines from January and February. Wholesale and retail operations under CPAXT and BJC’s BigC were major beneficiaries, as heightened geopolitical risk led to a surge in dry non-food product sales from consumers. Notably, CPALL’s 7-Eleven segment did not profit from this stockpiling trend, though it continued to see gains in beverage sales driven by warmer weather. Despite March’s improvement, Tisco forecasts the sector’s SSSG for 1Q26 to slightly contract by 0.4%, hampered by store renovations at BJC.
Looking forward to April, analysts project flat to low single-digit SSSG, aided by continued warm weather, a favorable low 2025 tourism base, and easing stockpiling pressure. These positives are expected to offset headwinds from rising utility costs impacting broader economic activity.
Within home improvement, 1Q26 SSSG stayed negative but improved in March, as DOHOME and GLOBAL each managed a return to positive territory. This turnaround is primarily attributed to contractors and trade buyers hedging against anticipated price hikes—especially in steel, PVC pipe, and paint. GLOBAL saw its B2B project segment jump 6-7% in March, though this was countered by a 4-5% decline in retail sales, resulting in a net increase of approximately 0.5%. DOHOME’s contractor-focused orders propelled its SSSG to double digits in back-office operations and overall mid-single digits, even as sales to end consumers remained subdued.
However, Tisco expects this preemptive buying to subside in April and May. On a positive note, government project spending should continue to support contractors and trade demand through the second quarter as project timelines approach fiscal year-end milestones.
MRDIYT Highlighted as Top Pick
Among sector stocks, Tisco highlights MRDIYT as its preferred pick due to its defensiveness, low-price private label strategy, and aggressive expansion funded by recent IPO proceeds—an attractive combination in Thailand’s high-debt environment.
