On Tuesday, the share prices of the refinery sector led the market recovery. In the morning session, the share prices of Thai Oil Public Company Limited (SET: TOP) closed at THB 46.50, a THB 2.25 or 5.08% increase with a total trading value of THB 866.96 million.
Meanwhile, the share prices of Star Petroleum Refining Public Company Limited (SET: SPRC) closed at THB 6.80, a THB 0.30 or 4.62% increase with a total trading value of THB 203.55 million.
The share prices of IRPC Public Company Limited (SET: IRPC) closed at THB 1.78, a THB 0.06 or 3.49% increase with a total trading value of THB 271.49 million.
The share prices of Bangchak Corporation Public Company Limited (SET: BCP) was at THB 37.50, a THB 1.00 or 2.74% increase with a total trading value of THB 198.19 million.
Krungsri Securities stated that refinery stocks rebounded and led the market this morning, supported by positive momentum as the government is likely to regulate prices considering the actual costs, which is more positive than the news circulating last week suggested.
Meanwhile, the stock prices have already reflected the risk, with the market value of the stocks in question having dropped by 6.2% or THB 22 billion month-to-date in April 2026. This is similar to the market value related to risk during the Russia-Ukraine situation in 2023 when the government imposed a levy.
In the broader picture, Thai refineries appear to hold a competitive advantage amid tight supply conditions. Tight global crude oil supply is likely to persist following the war. The market now expects global refining utilization rates to rise by 180bps between 2025 and 2028, while it is anticipated that this will support refining margin premiums and drive annual profits to 1.5 times higher than previous cycles. Thailand stands out for its crude oil procurement capabilities and strong infrastructure.
The analyst firm expected that refinery stocks, which underwent a significant correction late last week, have an opportunity to rebound. The focus is on speculative trading in TOP, with a target price for 2026 at THB 56.
