Phillip Securities (Thailand) wrote that the SET Index is expected to gradually trend upwards, with support and resistance levels at 1,530–1,540 points, supported by renewed optimism regarding negotiations between the U.S. and Iran.
Most recently, WTI crude oil prices have eased to $97.70 per barrel after the U.S. Secretary of State, Marco Rubio, revealed signs of improvement in diplomatic talks. President Donald Trump is reportedly seeking favorable terms with Iran, with Pakistani officials acting as mediators.
The market has interpreted these developments positively, raising short-term hopes for an end to the conflict between the two countries. Nonetheless, there remains concern over potential fees for passage through the Strait of Hormuz, which could complicate further negotiations.
Additionally, the Thai equity market has been supported by robust U.S. economic data, particularly in the property and industrial sectors. April 2026 building permits in the U.S. were reported at 1.44 million, above the market estimate of 1.38 million, and housing starts reached 1.46 million units, also exceeding expectations.
The S&P Global Manufacturing PMI for May 2026 stood at 55.3, reflecting solid expansion in industry, alleviating some inflationary concerns stemming from higher energy prices. U.S. 10-year bond yields have eased in the short term to 4.57%, reducing valuation pressures, especially for electronics component stocks.
Phillip assesses that while the outlook for negotiations has improved and the market response has been positive, uncertainties over the weekend may persist. Therefore, portfolio emphasis is recommended to be placed on domestic-oriented stocks and those leveraged to government projects, including financials, power generation, industrial estates, retail, construction, and banking, rather than stocks exposed to external factors.
Notable picks are categorized into four groups:
- Growth stocks for 2026: GULF, KBANK, KTB, MINT, OR, STECON, SPALI
- Beneficiaries of government measures and projects: ADVANC, CPALL, CPAXT, GUNKUL, CK, CPN, KTC, TIDLOR, TRUE, CENTEL, ERW
- Cyclical plays in electronics components: CCET, DELTA, HANA, HTECH, KCE
- Candidates for SET50 and SET100 index inclusion: For SET50—BCP, BTG, TFG; for SET100—NER, PSL, THCOM
Featured daily picks are as follows:
GUNKUL: Rated ‘Buy’ with a target price of THB 3.74–3.90 and support at THB 3.46–3.56. This is underpinned by external demand and strong 1Q26 earnings, driven by new solar farm projects.
TIDLOR: Rated ‘Buy’ with a target price of THB 18.40–19.20 and support at THB 17.10–17.40, on the back of record-high 1Q26 profits, surpassing market expectations, along with announced dividends and a share buyback program.
Other key domestic and international factors affecting investment sentiment include:
- The Department of Business Development reported that, under the Foreign Business Act, foreign investment approvals during the first four months of 2026 increased to 438 cases (up 21% year-on-year), with total investment value rising 124% year-on-year to THB 129.3 billion.
- The Export-Import Bank of Thailand (EXIM BANK) projects Thai export growth at 7% for 2026 and GDP growth at 2%, supported by better-than-expected export and investment momentum, as well as stimulus from a THB 400 billion loan decree.
- The Ministry of Agriculture and Cooperatives has approved 42 projects on water and land management covering 500,000 rai for 2026, aimed at improving water efficiency, supporting crop cultivation, and elevating farmers’ quality of life nationwide.
- According to Goldman Sachs, global crude and petroleum product inventories in May 2026 have declined at a record pace, attributed to the protracted conflict in the Middle East, which continues to severely disrupt energy supplies.
Other events to monitor in the upcoming week include the revision of the TH-MSCI index, Thailand’s April trade statistics, U.S. consumer confidence and Core PCE inflation data for May and April, Q1 U.S. GDP, U.S. durable goods orders for April, new home sales in the U.S. for April, China’s industrial profit data as of April, and Chinese manufacturing and services PMI for May.
