KKP Securities (KKPS) has reiterated its BUY rating on Tidlor Holdings Public Company Limited (SET: TIDLOR), assigning a price objective of THB 21.00, significantly above the current market price of THB 15.00, suggesting a deep value opportunity despite recent uncertainties.
The resignation of CEO Mr. Piyasak Ukritnukun has stirred concerns about leadership stability and the continuity of TIDLOR’s innovation-centric strategy. Nevertheless, KKPS points out that Mr. Piyasak will remain at the helm until October 2026 and highlights the strength of TIDLOR’s senior management team, viewing the situation as a temporary uncertainty rather than a fundamental risk to the company.
TIDLOR’s loan book is heavily concentrated in auto title loans (62%) and truck-related loans (16%). This exposure, coupled with the company’s prudent provisioning, has led to speculation about further overlay requirements. KKPS believes such concerns are exaggerated, referencing the THB 210 million in extra reserves booked in 4Q25 for flood risks that ultimately had a smaller actual impact. With a loan loss reserve (LLR) coverage of 325% and provisions-to-loans ratio at 5.2% as of end-2025, TIDLOR is seen as well-protected against future risks.
Transitioning to a holding company structure, TIDLOR depends on dividend payouts from its core subsidiary, Ngern Tid Lor (NTL), of which it holds 99.4%. The subsidiary reported 2025 results and paid THB 4.86 billion in dividends to TIDLOR in March 2026. KKPS’ base case assumes that 36% of this amount will be distributed to shareholders, equating to a dividend per share (DPS) of THB 0.6. Should the payout mirror last year’s 71%, DPS could rise to THB 1.2, suggesting further upside.
Preliminary figures for 2M26 indicate that TIDLOR’s loan growth is outperforming the 4.6% uptick recorded in 1Q25. The company faces the maturity of THB 10 billion in debentures this year at an average 3.3% cost, but a recent credit rating upgrade to “A+” in May 2025 is expected to support favorable refinancing conditions despite a steeper yield curve. The one-off THB 140 million impairment in 4Q25 is not expected to repeat. Even under conservative forecasts—loan growth slowing to 5% and rising credit costs—TIDLOR’s net profit would still grow by 2%. With solid earnings and a positive dividend outlook, KKPS continues to see TIDLOR as a BUY.
