Mr. Koraphat Vorachet, Assistant Director and Division Head of Research at Krungsri Securities (KSS), stated in the “Kaohoon” program on April 30, 2026, that the overall Thai stock market today, which is the last trading day before a long holiday, is expected to see a shift in investment positions to partially reduce risks, as investors may be cautious about holding stocks over the four-day holiday.
However, the general outlook for the Thai stock market remains “neutral to positive,” despite short-term pressures from the U.S. government bond yields rising close to 4.5-4.6%, as well as concerns over oil prices and inflation, which could affect the direction of U.S. Federal Reserve interest rates going forward.
Nevertheless, the increase in oil prices is still considered a positive factor for the profits in the Thai market, especially for energy stocks. If the year-to-date average crude oil price does not exceed $95 per barrel, it will continue to support the upward revision of profit estimates for listed Thai companies. Recently, Thai bourse profits have been revised up for three consecutive months, marking a positive cycle that has not occurred for a long time.
Meanwhile, first-quarter 2026 financial performance of listed companies, as recently announced, has exceeded expectations. Among the first 20 companies, 17 posted profits above forecasts, and overall profits were about 14% higher than market estimates.
Mr. Koraphat added that another positive structural factor is the investment promotion applications filed with the Board of Investment (BOI) in 1Q26, which reached approximately THB 1 trillion, compared to THB 1.87 trillion for the entire year of 2025. Approximately 80% of this was investment in Infratech and AI-related sectors, reflecting the start of a new investment cycle in Thailand and Southeast Asia.
The analyst expects the SET Index to move with volatility, setting a resistance level at 1,510 points and a support support level at 1,480 – 1,475 points. The market could see some positive momentum from energy and bank stocks, but risk reduction activity by investors before the holidays should still be monitored toward the end of the session. Today’s top picks are PTT, SCC, and PTTGC.
Regarding DELTA, which is under the market surveillance measure for the last day, Mr. Koraphat believes the share may exit the surveillance as its recent performance was in line with forecasts, and it is expected to trade under normal regulations next week.
However, throughout May, DELTA must be monitored closely; if it returns under a market surveillance measure even for some periods, it could affect the liquidity criteria for its inclusion in the SET50 Index.
If DELTA were to be removed from SET50, this could lead to short-term pressure on the Thai stock market from portfolio adjustments by both passive and active funds, possibly triggering selling pressure in DELTA before funds are subsequently allocated to other big-cap stocks, such as ADVANC, PTT, GULF, and AOT.
The analyst estimated that outflows could reach “tens of billions of baht”, with around THB 6 billion from passive funds (calculated from a 10% weighting in a total fund value of about THB 60 billion), plus at least that much again from active funds that also need to adjust portfolios.
Regarding petrochemical stocks, Mr. Koraphat stated the outlook remains positive, particularly amid ongoing mergers and industry restructuring in Asia after many countries faced intense competition and higher production costs. Companies are thus enhancing production efficiency, gaining better negotiating power over raw materials, and strengthening business structures. The cooperation between SCC and PTTGC, for example, is seen as a “Win-Win Solution” for both parties.
As for SCC, its latest results beat market expectations by around 20%, driven by improved chemical product spreads, reduced costs, and lower stock losses, along with domestic cement businesses being able to raise prices. Furthermore, its packaging business has shown margin improvements amid reduced competition in Indonesia.
