Maybank Securities (Thailand) has maintained a ‘Neutral’ stance on the Thai food and beverage sector, designating Osotspa Public (OSP) as the preferred stock in the beverage group. The brokerage notes that with the easing of geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, much of the related risk has likely already been priced into stock valuations.
Maybank has upgraded its recommendation on OSP to ‘Buy’ and raised its target price to THB 18.40 per share. This view is supported by the company’s strong cost control, which is expected to drive a 5% growth in earnings per share and dividend yield of up to 5% in 2026.
For Carabao Group (CBG), the brokerage maintains its ‘Hold’ rating but has revised the target price upward to THB 40.00 per share, citing elevated raw material costs that are likely to continue depressing gross margins through the second and third quarters of 2026.
Notably, shares of CBG and OSP are still trading approximately 9% and 8% lower, respectively, compared to pre-conflict levels.
Valuation assumptions for both stocks have been adjusted, applying a price-to-earnings multiple of 15x 2026 earnings, up from 13x previously, reflecting the easing cost pressures anticipated in the latter half of 2026. Key risks to this outlook include the potential escalation of U.S.-Iran tensions, stricter import controls in Myanmar, and weaker-than-expected domestic demand for energy drinks.
Myanmar and Cambodia have remained a drag on the main revenues of OSP and CBG, respectively, in 2Q26. However, the situation regarding import licensing in Myanmar is showing signs of improvement, and the reopening of border checkpoints is expected to facilitate OSP’s personal care product exports. For CBG, new OEM customers and other export markets could help partially offset lost sales from Cambodia.
In terms of financial performance, Maybank projects that OSP’s second quarter 2026 profit will stand out among its peers. Although tensions between the U.S. and Iran have eased, the brokerage expects key raw material costs to remain elevated versus last year during the second and third quarters of 2026.
OSP’s cost management discipline is anticipated to sustain earnings strength, with a core profit forecast of THB 1 billion for 2Q26 (flat year-on-year, down 12% quarter-on-quarter), driven by improved domestic sales and reduced selling, general, and administrative expenses.
Conversely, CBG’s 2Q26 earnings are expected to decline by 19% year-on-year (up 6% quarter-on-quarter) due to weaker export sales and narrowing margins. The brokerage also anticipates that both ICHI and SAPPE will report weaker year-on-year profit during the second and third quarters.
Currently, OSP is trading at a P/E of just 13x 2026 earnings, lower than CBG’s 15x, despite OSP’s stronger profit growth trajectory and higher dividend yield. Maybank has revised its 2026–2028 core EPS forecast for OSP up by 6–8% due to improved cost controls, while the forecast for CBG is lower by 4–7% on more subdued margin assumptions.
