The global memory market is expected to undergo substantial price increases through 2027, according to a recent analysis by Jefferies, rebuffing concerns about potential threats from Chinese technology competition in the near term.
Jefferies’ technology and memory sector expert anticipates significant upward momentum in average selling prices (ASPs) for DRAM and NAND, predicting a 40%–50% quarter-on-quarter (QoQ) rise in the third quarter of 2026. This rally is expected to continue with an additional 30%–40% price increase in the fourth quarter. Looking ahead, Jefferies forecasts a 40%–45% year-over-year (YoY) surge in memory prices in 2027. However, the analysis warns that 2028 could bring a dramatic fall in ASPs as a projected 15%–20% increase in supply from newly added capacity may outpace slowing demand.
On the competitive front, Jefferies reassures investors that China poses minimal risk to the global memory market’s bullish trend in 2026 and 2027 due to its technological lag. Nevertheless, the report cautions that Chinese NAND technology could catch up by 2028, potentially increasing competition.
The report notes a notable shift in long-term agreements (LTAs), with cloud service providers (CSPs) now holding contracts for 50% of the industry’s memory capacity—a share that could reach 70%. This trend means less supply is available for consumer electronics sectors (CES), potentially supporting higher prices.
In a move reflecting mounting optimism in the sector, Bank of America recently reaffirmed its confidence in Micron Technology Inc. The investment bank sharply increased its price target for Micron by 58%, from $950 to $1,500, while maintaining its Buy rating. The endorsement underscores Jefferies’ bullish outlook for the industry going into the late 2020s.
