Israel faced an unresolved contest for government on Tuesday night, with television exit polls putting both Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s alliance and the opposition led by Gadi Eisenkot below a parliamentary majority. Failure to assemble a coalition could trigger another election, leaving Netanyahu’s administration in a caretaker role without the power to make major policy changes.
Public services would continue under that arrangement. The immediate question, however, is whether either camp can secure enough partners to control 61 of the Knesset’s 120 seats.
Channels 11, 12 and 13 estimated that Netanyahu’s allies would secure 51 – 52 seats, compared with the 68 held by his outgoing coalition. Right-winged Likud nevertheless remained on course to lead the individual party rankings, with an estimated 25 – 27 seats.
Eisenkot’s opposition camp was projected to take 52 – 53 seats. Neither alliance therefore appeared close to the number required to govern without additional support.
The figures remain provisional. Overnight vote counting could alter the distribution, and completion of the tally is expected to require several days.
Neither leader explicitly announced victory when addressing supporters after the projections appeared. At Likud’s Jerusalem headquarters, Netanyahu expressed gratitude to voters and portrayed their support as a fresh endorsement. Eisenkot, speaking from his campaign headquarters in Tel Aviv, characterized the result as a rejection of Netanyahu. Both sought to present the uncertain outcome favorably.
Unless the results deliver a majority to one side, party leaders face weeks of bargaining over a governing alliance. Smaller factions can become essential to reaching the threshold, allowing them to seek ministerial appointments, funding commitments or policy concessions from larger parties.
President Isaac Herzog, whose office is primarily ceremonial, will first meet party leaders and then select the candidate he considers best placed to establish a government. That candidate can receive up to six weeks to gather majority support. An unsuccessful attempt could be followed by opportunities for other candidates.
If those efforts also fail to produce a viable coalition, Israel would return to the polls within the next few months. Netanyahu’s government would stay in place on a caretaker basis while the election and government-formation process began again.
Arab parties emerged as potentially decisive participants in forming a government, although both competing blocs have so far ruled out including them. The exit polls initially assigned those parties 17 – 18 seats; projections for the Joint List and Raam also put their combined total at 17 – 19, their best result to date.
Their gains accompanied a sharp increase in participation. Nationwide turnout reached at least 77.7%, a level last seen in 1999, while Arab parties reported participation above 75%. Arab citizens have historically voted at lower rates than Jewish Israelis.
Palestinian citizens, who account for about one-fifth of Israel’s population, were motivated by efforts to remove Netanyahu’s right-wing administration. Hardline ministers Bezalel Smotrich and Itamar Ben-Gvir hold dominant positions within that coalition. During Ben-Gvir’s service as national security minister, Arab communities have experienced a substantial increase in crime and killings.
The higher Arab vote may have prevented Netanyahu from retaining a majority, but it does not give Eisenkot a straightforward route to office. The retired general requires prospective coalition partners to accept Israel’s identity as a Jewish state and designate Hamas a terrorist organization that must be dismantled. Most Arab legislators are unlikely to agree to those requirements.
