The World Bank forecast Thailand’s economy to expand by 2.9 percent this year, less than expected in December 2021, but the recovery will improve in the medium term, with private consumption and exports as the key drivers of growth in 2022.
In a report released on Wednesday, the bank stated that despite private consumption and merchandise exports being the major growth drivers in 2022, their impact will be smaller than expected due to recent external shocks.
Furthermore, there are some causes for concern, such as the rapid rise in prices and household debt, as well as global tensions arising from the Russia-Ukraine conflict and a slowdown in China.
The bank advises that the last two issues should be closely monitored, since they affect Thailand’s reliance on oil and susceptibility to supply chain disruptions.
In 2022, headline inflation is expected to be 5.2 percent, with core inflation at 2.3 percent. Global oil prices are anticipated to average $100 per barrel in 2022 and fall only marginally in 2023 and 2024.
The spike in inflation is expected to be largely temporary, with inflation projected to ease to 2.2 percent in 2023.