According to data released by the Ministry of Commerce on Friday, Thailand’s headline consumer price index (CPI) fell 0.57% year-on-year in May, marking a deeper decline than the 0.22% drop recorded the previous month.
The figure was marginally better than market expectations, with economists surveyed by Reuters forecasting a steeper fall of 0.80%. Nonetheless, inflation continues to track well below the Bank of Thailand’s target range of 1% to 3%.
Stripping out volatile food and energy costs, core CPI increased by 1.09% from a year earlier in May, outpacing the estimate of a 0.94% rise.
Against this backdrop, the Ministry of Commerce has revised down its full-year inflation outlook for 2025, projecting a range between 0% and 1%, compared to its previous forecast of 0.3% to 1.3%.
Looking ahead, headline inflation is expected to remain subdued, with the June reading projected to be between 0.2% and 0.4%. For the first five months of 2025, the figure averaged just 0.48%, while core inflation stood at 0.95%.
The ministry anticipates annual inflation in the second quarter to hover between -0.1% and 0%, before edging slightly higher to around 0.1% to 0.3% in the third quarter. The pace of price increases is expected to pick up toward the end of the year, with fourth-quarter inflation forecast within the range of 0.7% to 0.9%.
