Thailand is pressing ahead with plans to legalize casino-resort complexes, offering clearer direction on regulation and market structure in a move that could reshape the country’s tourism and entertainment landscape.
According to a new analysis by JPMorgan, recent updates from the Finance Ministry shed light on both the licensing approach and policy towards local patrons, signaling significant progress on the government’s landmark Entertainment Complex (EC) initiative.
Singapore-Style Licensing, Strict Government Oversight
JPMorgan analysts note that a core shift from earlier drafts is the move towards a licensing regime modeled after Singapore’s exclusive and high-investment orientation. The Thai government intends to restrict the number of licenses issued, favoring only a handful of large-scale projects. Each license will require a minimum investment of 100 billion baht (approximately US$3 billion), although industry experts believe real project sizes could reach upwards of US$6–7 billion. The government will centrally designate approved locations—most likely in established tourist hubs—to channel maximum spillover benefits to related sectors like concerts, conventions, and yacht tourism.
Local Access Revisions
JPMorgan points to notable changes in how Thai citizens may access gaming facilities, a perennial point of debate in the policy process. Initial proposals mandating minimum savings of 50 million baht (about US$1.5 million) for entry were not mentioned in the recent presentation, indicating that the restriction might have been dropped. Meanwhile, the current model will feature a “negative list” instead. Under this regime, casino entry would be off-limits for individuals flagged by self-exclusion, family request, or government identification of criminal backgrounds. In JPMorgan’s view, the less restrictive model dramatically expands the addressable domestic market for future operators, though details remain subject to change as the bill progresses through Thailand’s legislative process.
Earliest Openings by 2030
The legislative roadmap remains unchanged, according to JPMorgan’s analysis citing the presentation by the Ministry of Finance. The EC bill is expected to reach parliament in July 2025, with possible passage in 2026. JPMorgan forecasts that license bidding and auctions could launch in 2027 or 2028, positioning Thailand’s casinos for potential openings between 2030 and 2031. However, analysts note that this timeline is contingent on successful navigation of political and regulatory hurdles.
Big Names Show Interest
The Ministry of Finance highlights significant interest from global integrated resort heavyweights. Four major international groups have engaged with Thai officials, including Wynn Resorts and MGM China. At least one operator, JPMorgan notes, sees Thailand with the long-term potential to become the world’s third-largest casino market—trailing only Las Vegas and Macau.
Economic Impact
Citing Finance Ministry figures, it is estimated that the Entertainment Complex project could enhance Thailand’s GDP by 0.2% to 0.8% once operational—almost perfectly matching the JPMorgan’s projections (0.29–0.97%). During construction, the GDP impact is estimated at roughly 0.23%. In terms of public revenue, the casinos are expected to generate 12–40 billion baht (US$375–1,250 million) in taxes and fees per year, with JPMorgan’s forecast ranging from US$245–814 million, based on a 17% casino tax. The EC is projected to add 9,000–10,000 new jobs, closely trailing benchmarks like Singapore’s Marina Bay Sands.
The casinos, integrated with state-of-the-art entertainment venues and luxury facilities, could also increase tourism receipts by 100–200 billion baht annually and boost average tourist expenditure per visit by 22,000 baht.
Ongoing Uncertainties Remain
JPMorgan stresses that while the roadmap and macro projections are favorable, key aspects of legislation and regulation are still in flux. Further changes are possible as the draft bill moves through legislative scrutiny over the next two years—and as global operators jostle for position.
