Thailand’s economy posted stronger-than-expected growth in the second quarter of 2025, expanding 2.8% year-on-year, according to data released Monday by the National Economic and Social Development Council. This figure surpassed the 2.5% median forecast in a recent Reuters survey of analysts, highlighting a moderate recovery in Southeast Asia’s second-largest economy.
Quarter-on-quarter, the Thai economy increased by a seasonally adjusted 0.6% for the April to June period, outpacing the anticipated 0.3% expansion projected in the latest analyst poll.
Reflecting the evolving economic landscape, the state planning agency revised Thailand’s full-year 2025 GDP growth outlook to a range of 1.8% to 2.3%. This is an upward shift from May’s projection of 1.3% to 2.3%, signaling cautious optimism despite global uncertainties.
In addition, the agency upgraded its 2025 export growth forecast, now expecting a 5.5% rise versus May’s estimate of a 1.8% increase. This is after the import tariffs to the U.S. was firmly set at 19%, a much lower than 38% reciprocal tariffs set in April. In contrast, projections for headline inflation were tempered, with expectations now at 0.0% to 0.5% compared to the previous 0.0% to 1.0% range cited in May.
Revised data from the planning agency also indicated that first-quarter GDP growth in 2025 reached 3.2% year-on-year, slightly higher than the earlier stated 3.1%. On a seasonal basis, first-quarter expansion remained steady at 0.7%.
While exports are set to strengthen and the economy delivers resilience, tourism faces a headwind. Authorities now anticipate foreign tourist arrivals in 2025 will reach 33 million, down from the 37 million forecasted just two months ago. This underscores the ongoing sectoral shifts Thailand continues to navigate in a challenging global environment.
