Thailand’s tourism sector reported a strong start to the high tourism season, with foreign tourist arrivals reaching 2.57 million in October—a 15.1% jump month-on-month but down 3.9% year-on-year, according to an analysis by Kiatnakin Phatra Securities (KKPS).
Tourism revenue mirrored this trend, climbing 21% month-on-month to THB 117.6 billion, but was slightly off by 3.1% compared to the same period last year.
For the first ten months of 2025, Thailand welcomed 26.7 million visitors, trailing last year’s 28.8 million by 7.2%. Revenue for the same period totaled approximately THB 1.22 trillion, a 6.6% decrease year-on-year.
October saw an impressive rebound from European tourists, with arrivals rising by 56.6% month-on-month and 8.2% year-on-year to 584,928. Tourist arrivals from South Asia gained ground, increasing from 248,687 in September to 257,898 in October—a 3.7% month-on-month rise and a remarkable 22.3% jump year-on-year.
The Americas also saw notable growth, with arrivals surging by 58.6% from the prior month and posting an 8.2% increase over the previous year.
Despite some improvement, Chinese tourist numbers remain subdued. October arrivals stood at 357,445, up 11.2% month-on-month but still down 22.2% year-on-year and at just 43.2% of pre-pandemic levels. ASEAN arrivals were weak, falling 2.8% month-on-month and nearly 10% year-on-year. Meanwhile, Middle Eastern arrivals declined 3.7% on a monthly basis but rose 5.8% versus last year.
Nevertheless, early November indicators show an uptick in flights, especially from China, suggesting a potential monthly seat capacity of 500,000, up from the current 400,000. Flights from Europe and South Asia are also trending upward. KKPS projects total November arrivals to reach about 2.9 million—a 13.5% increase from October but 7.3% below November last year. Chinese arrivals are expected to reach 370,000 for the month.
KKPS maintains its tourist arrival targets of 33.6 million for 2025 (a decrease of 5.4% year-on-year) and 34.9 million for 2026 (up 3.8% year-on-year). While recent monthly data points to a slight downside risk to these forecasts, arrivals are still tracking above the current run-rate of 33 million. Notably, stronger-than-expected numbers from Chinese and Middle Eastern markets have provided partial compensation for the shortfall seen in other regions.
