Thailand welcomed 32.6 million foreign tourists from January 1 to December 28, a 7.29% year-on-year decline, according to the Tourism Ministry. Malaysia remained the top source market with 4.48 million visitors, closely followed by China at 4.44 million. This marks a notable decrease from the pre-pandemic 2019 record of nearly 40 million arrivals.
Analysts from Krungsri Securities (KSS) highlighted a recent improvement, with a 4-week consecutive recovery and a week-on-week gain of 11.6% for December 22-28. However, annual figures suggest overall foreign arrivals in 2025 will be down by about 7-8%, with Chinese tourists down over 30% from previous levels.
Despite the ongoing drop in Chinese visitors, analysts note a positive trend in diversifying visitor bases from other countries, which helps mitigate the decline. Looking ahead, Krungsri expects potential for a strong rebound in Chinese arrivals by early 2026, driven in part by reduced Chinese air traffic to Japan and increased flights to Thailand—a shift likely influenced by geopolitical tensions.
This anticipated trend bodes well for Thailand’s services sector. Krungsri maintains their 2026 outlook for significant recovery in hospitality, with room for upside both in earnings and market valuation re-rating. Key beneficiaries are expected to be Central Plaza Hotel (SET: CENTEL), where Chinese guests make up 6% of the portfolio and Thai hotels account for 78%, and The Erawan Group (SET: ERW), with Chinese guests representing 14% of the portfolio and Thai hotels at 83%.
