Apichat Poobunjirdkul, CISA, Senior Strategist at TISCO Securities, revealed that the domestic political landscape heading toward the February 8, 2026 general election is expected to benefit the Thai stock market in the short term—particularly stocks related to domestic consumption and policies leveraged during election campaigns.
Statistical studies indicate that, within 1-2 months before the election, there is a 53-73% chance that the SET Index generates an average return of 2.0% to 2.3%. Sectors that typically deliver positive returns and outperform the market during election periods include food, finance, construction materials, energy, and communication.
TISCO maintains its SET Index target for 2026 at 1,388 points (based on a Fwd. PER of about 16 times, and EPS for 2026-2027 at 81.2 and 84.9, respectively), implying an upside of approximately 100 points, though this is capped by low economic and listed company earnings growth. The brokerage also expects Thai stocks to have limited downside, having declined against the trend of global equities for three consecutive years.
While the upside and downside for the Thai market this year appear limited—at least in the first half—there are two main investment themes worth considering early this year: (1) Election-related stocks, with recommendations for AEONTS, CPAXT, MC, and TASCO; and (2) high dividend yield stocks (expected 2025 dividend yield at over 4%), recommended BTG, PRM, PTTEP, and SCCC.
Top stock picks for January are AEONTS, BTG, CPAXT, MC, PRM, PTTEP, SCCC, and TASCO (with AEONTS, PRM, PTTEP, TASCO—half of these picks—also included in the SETHD Index). Key support levels for Thai equities in January 2026 are at 1,240–1,250 points, with the next range at 1,200–1,220 points. Major resistance levels are at 1,285 points, 1,300 points, and 1,340 points, respectively.
For alternative overseas investments through Depositary Receipts (DRs) in January 2026, the recommended picks are NOVOB80 (Novo Nordisk) and SMIC23 (Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corp). Both companies present positive growth prospects and their share prices have recently corrected. Novo Nordisk (NOVO_B) recently rebounded following FDA approval of its GLP-1 weight loss drug, offering potential recovery after a share price drop of over 50% from peak earlier in the year.
Meanwhile, Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corp (981 HK) remains a leading semiconductor producer in China and is continuously expanding its production capacity.
