Krungsri Securities has released its latest outlook on Thailand’s aviation sector, highlighting that total international tourist arrivals for 2025 fell by 7% year-on-year to 32.97 million, a figure largely in line with estimates from the Tourism Authority of Thailand (TAT), Bank of Thailand (BOT), and Krungsri Research.
The final week of 2025 showed a modest weekly improvement, with arrivals up 12% week-on-week due to seasonal factors. However, year-on-year numbers remained weak, down 8% compared to the same period last year. This decline stemmed mainly from significant drops in arrivals from China (-34%), Malaysia (-21%), and South Korea (-23%).
For the entire year, Malaysia and China were the top sources of visitors, bringing in 4.52 million and 4.47 million tourists respectively, though both showed sharp declines. Conversely, India contributed 2.49 million visitors with a robust 17% increase, and Russia saw a 9% rise to 1.75 million arrivals.
Looking to 2026, Krungsri forecasts a gradual recovery, with an estimated 35 million arrivals—a 6% increase year-on-year—closely aligned with projections from TAT and BOT.
On the aviation side, while outbound flight capacity from China grew 7% year-on-year in the final week of December, this marked a slowdown compared to prior weeks. Flight capacity on the China-Thailand route edged up just 1% week-on-week but remained 16% below the previous year’s levels.
Despite the recent uptick in arrivals due to seasonal factors, Krungsri remains cautious over the sector’s fundamentals. The brokerage maintains a “Neutral” weight on the aviation sector, citing ongoing pressures such as lingering safety concerns, lack of new attractions, and intense competition weighing on average ticket fares.
Aviation earnings for the fourth quarter of 2025 are expected to improve sequentially but decline year-on-year. For 2026, Krungsri projects normalized earnings in the sector to drop 12% from the previous year due to competition. The research team continues to favor Bangkok Airways (BA), expecting a 5% annual dividend yield and positive momentum from the U-Tapao airport investment project.
