Wattanapong Kurovat, Director General of Energy Policy and Planning Office (EPPO), revealed that the progress of the new Power Development Plan (PDP 2026) is expected within January.
The minimum electricity demand, or base load, will be completed and will then be submitted to the meeting of the Sub-Committee on Forecasting and Preparing the National Power Development Plan, chaired by Thosaporn Sirisumphand.
Subsequently, the meeting will decide whether public hearings will be conducted or not, though EPPO prefers to hold public hearings to ensure acceptance of the data. The PDP 2026 plan is expected to be launched within 1Q26.
PDP 2026 will be a 25-year long-term plan (2026-2050) so that the PDP can support the country’s new goals in line with global energy trends and the adjustment of the Net Zero target from 2065 to 2050.
The principles of PDP 2026 cover several aspects. For economic growth (GDP), the Office of the National Economic and Social Development Council (NESDC) forecasts an average 25-year growth of 2.6-2.7%. Electricity reserve margin must be appropriate, with the calculation method for reserve rate adjusted to use Loss of Load Expectation (LOLE), targeted at 0.7% or 16 hours per year.
Simultaneously, the plan must also consider projected electricity demand from data centers, which is expected to grow significantly. Initial figures are being confirmed with the Board of Investment (BOI) and are estimated at 4,000-5,000 megawatts that have been approved for BOI incentives.
There’s also data on Independent Power Supply (IPS), currently about 8,000 megawatts, with 99% from solar rooftop installations generating during daytime, while at night, users revert to grid power for about 20-30%.
Moreover, it remains to be seen whether the Energy Efficiency Plan (EEP) by the Department of Alternative Energy Development and Efficiency (DEDE) will achieve its target, and what the share of the Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand (EGAT) in power production will be—whether it will increase to 51% from the current 30%.
EGAT was tasked to review its production figures for both fossil and renewable energy, including floating solar farm projects in EGAT’s reservoirs nationwide. According to PDP 2018 Revision 1, the floating solar capacity was set at 2,725 megawatts, but EGAT previously reported that the potential could reach 10,000 megawatts. However, EGAT now indicates that the target may not be achieved.
Aside from promoting renewable energy projects such as solar farms, wind energy projects, and community solar projects, the role of modern energy technology is also being shaped. Small Modular Reactors (SMR) may be a solution to achieve the Net Zero 2050 target, possibly accelerating the timetable from the original plan (2032-2033), though it would still take at least 10 years.
EGAT has been tasked with studying suitable sites for the construction of SMR power plants. The new PDP may consider increasing the capacity framework for SMR, as well as incorporating carbon capture and storage (CCS) projects in the PDP at appropriate times.
