Thailand’s export sector saw a remarkable surge in January 2026, with customs-cleared exports rising by 24.4% year-on-year. This figure significantly outperformed the 9.35% growth forecasted by economists in a Reuters poll, according to data released by the Thai Commerce Ministry. The ministry attributed this robust performance to strong global demand, while also expressing optimism for continued export growth throughout 2026.
Imports also posted significant gains, increasing by 29.4% year-on-year in January, far exceeding the Reuters poll estimate of 10.25%. However, the sharp rise in imports contributed to a wider customs-cleared trade deficit, with the trade balance standing at minus $3.30 billion for the month, more negative than the consensus forecast of a $2.03 billion deficit.
Despite the buoyant export increase, the Commerce Ministry emphasized its intent to closely monitor exchange rate volatility and trade dynamics, particularly in light of external uncertainties. The Thai baht’s movements and fluctuations in trade figures will play a critical role in shaping future policy responses.
External factors remain a prominent concern for policymakers. With U.S. President Donald Trump implementing a new 15% global tariff regime, Thai goods have faced a reciprocal 19% tariff from the United States since August 2025. Both the Commerce Ministry and the Bank of Thailand (BOT) are assessing the implications of these changes on Thailand’s export-driven economy and overall competitiveness. The BOT has signaled that these developments, alongside broader global trade shifts, will be taken into account in future monetary policy decisions.
