Nantapong Chiralerspong, Director of the Trade Policy and Strategy Office (TPSO) and spokesperson of the Ministry of Commerce, revealed that Thailand’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) for March 2026 stood at 100.27, a decrease of 0.08% compared to the same period last year.
The headline inflation rate has eased, despite pressures from Middle East tensions and risks of closure of the Strait of Hormuz affecting global oil prices. However, domestic retail oil prices have remained capped by price stabilization measures in the first half of the month. Furthermore, reductions in electricity bills continue to relieve living costs, and most goods are from the existing stock, preventing price increases in March.
Regarding the inflation structure, the category of food and non-alcoholic beverages rose by 0.34% year-on-year, driven by prices in key products such as ready-to-eat food, non-alcoholic beverages, fish and seafood, white rice, fresh vegetables, and sugar products. Meanwhile, non-food and non-beverage categories fell by 0.34% year-on-year, mainly due to lower energy prices, especially for electricity and fuel, as well as some consumer products.
Core inflation, which excludes fresh food and energy, rose by 0.57% year-on-year, a slight increase from February’s 0.56%.
The general CPI for March 2026 also increased by 0.60% compared to February, reflecting the rise in fuel prices in line with global crude oil prices after a reduction in subsidy from the Oil Fund, as well as increases in airfares and cleaning products prices following the end of promotional sales.
Both domestic and international airfares increased in response to higher fuel costs and travel demand. Prices of some food items such as pork, fresh chicken, eggs, and vegetables rose due to increased production costs and hot weather affecting output.
Overall, in 1Q26, the average inflation rate dropped by 0.54% year-on-year and by 0.16% compared to the previous quarter.
The Ministry of Commerce forecasts that in 2Q26, the general inflation rate is likely to turn significantly positive, pressured by global oil prices, agricultural products—especially fresh vegetables, eggs, and meat—as feed and transportation costs increase, along with rising airfares.
Additionally, business operators are beginning to signal price adjustments to reflect rising costs, while government measures such as electricity bill relief and slow recovery of fruit prices will help ease price pressure.
The Ministry has revised its general inflation forecast for 2026 from the previous 0.0 – 1.0% to 1.5 – 2.5%, with a midpoint of 2.0%.
