Kiatnakin Phatra Securities (KKPS) wrote in its analysis that government disbursement in Thailand showed significant acceleration in the second quarter of 2026, with investment disbursement reaching THB 132 billion, up 5.6% year-on-year, compared to a 2.6% increase in the first quarter.
Current expenditure and total disbursement were THB 686.9 billion (+8.2% year-on-year) and THB 819.4 billion (+7.8% year-on-year), respectively, reflecting strong growth partially due to a low base in 2025. However, growth is expected to moderate in the last quarter of the fiscal year as much of the spending has already been front-loaded.
The cumulative overall budget disbursement rate for FY2026 stood at 77.1%, which is 5.1 percentage points above the 2016-24 average. The investment budget disbursement rate was 47.6% (+4.8 percentage points above trend), while the current expenditure disbursement rate was 85.8% (+6.1 percentage points above trend).
On the revenue side, net government revenue from October 2025 to May 2026 reached THB 1.78 trillion, marking a 4.3% increase year-on-year and exceeding the Ministry of Finance’s projections by THB 40 billion. This was attributed to robust collections by the Revenue Department and higher transfers from state-owned enterprises. With oil prices easing, the need for government intervention in fuel taxes declined, leading to expectations that revenue will stay above target through the end of FY2026.
The brokerage noted that the availability of a THB 400 billion emergency loan provides further fiscal flexibility. With disbursement running high, this buffer should support the fiscal impulse into 2027. However, as the carryover budget normalizes in 4Q26, public investment growth is anticipated to turn negative year-on-year from 4Q26 to 3Q27. The second portion of the emergency loan, valued up to THB 250 billion, is expected to strengthen fiscal support from the start of 2027.
This fiscal push, however, comes at the cost of rising public debt. As of May 2026, Thailand’s public debt-to-GDP ratio was 66.8% and is projected to reach 67.8% by fiscal year-end. With full usage of the THB 400 billion emergency loan, the debt ratio is expected to breach the government’s 70% ceiling in FY2027, two years earlier than projected in a no-loan scenario.
