On Tuesday at 2:29 PM (Bangkok time), the share price of Thai Oil Public Company Limited (SET: TOP) surged 1.95% or THB 1.25 to THB 65.25, with a trading value of THB 1.26 billion.
Bangchak Corporation Public Company Limited (SET: BCP) gained 2.69% or THB 1.50 to THB 57.25, with a trading value of THB 991.63 million.
PTT Exploration and Production Public Company Limited (SET: PTTEP) rose by 1.01% or THB 1.50 to THB 150.00, with a trading value of THB 2.18 billion.
PTT Public Company Limited (SET: PTT) increased by 1.84% or THB 0.75 to THB 41.50, with a trading value of THB 7.47 billion.
Krungsri Securities (KSS) wrote that, according to recent news, Mr. Akanat Promphan, Minister of Energy, is currently proposing to the Prime Minister the lifting of restrictions on diesel exports. This follows a period in which domestic diesel inventory levels have reached 70-80% of capacity due to a slowdown in domestic demand during the rainy season, prompting refineries to cut back on production.
The decision regarding the nature of potential diesel exports, however, will ultimately depend on policy considerations, especially in light of ongoing concerns over the situation in the Middle East.
The brokerage expresses a slightly positive view on the possibility of the government reopening diesel exports. Should this occur as early as September, it would be ahead of the firm’s initial expectation of a resumption in exports during 4Q26. This would result in a marginally higher utilization rate for the refinery sector than previously forecast, providing an upside to 2026 profits of approximately 0.5-1%.
The primary beneficiaries of this move would be companies with high diesel/gasoil yields, with BCP leading at 43%, followed by SPRC and TOP at 37% respectively (yields before production cuts implemented in June).
Krungsri maintains its bullish view on the refinery sector and continues to name SPRC as its top pick. From a longer-term perspective, projections for 2026-2028 indicate that the refinery sector is expected to remain in a tight supply cycle, as new production capacity is anticipated to lag behind demand growth. This dynamic is expected to keep refining margins above the 10-year average and allow the sector to generate strong cash flow and maintain high dividend payments, with yields estimated at 3-13%, led by SPRC, BCP, and TOP.
Additionally, Krungsri notes that tensions in the Middle East have persisted since Monday, following President Donald Trump’s announcement of plans for severe action against Iran should further attacks occur. In response, Iran has issued more serious threats of retaliation in the event of U.S. military strikes. Nevertheless, both sides have so far kept the scale of military engagement limited.
Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian has reiterated Iran’s readiness for dialogue and commitment to the Memorandum of Understanding reached in June, provided the United States upholds its obligations.
Meanwhile, navigation through the Strait of Hormuz continues to face disruptions, as negotiations to reopen the waterway have stalled after the expiration of the 60-day MOU in mid-August 2026. The United States has intensified its efforts with “Operation Economic Outcast,” deploying secondary sanctions targeted at banks and networks involved in facilitating Iranian trade, in an effort to pressure Iran back to the negotiating table.
Overall, Krungsri assesses the situation as slightly negative, reflecting the continued likelihood of military conflict following the first exchange of hostilities in a month. This geopolitical tension is seen as a positive factor supporting global crude oil prices, and, by extension, is a supportive factor for shares in the Energy Security sector, with a focus on PTT, PTTEP, SPRC, BCP, and TOP.
