South Korea’s economic growth in 2027 could lose about 0.4 percentage points if major U.S. technology companies scale back artificial intelligence investment next year, a Bank of Korea analysis shows. Under that scenario, semiconductor export revenue would fall $50 billion to $100 billion short of previous projections.
The central bank’s downside assessment also puts the current account surplus substantially below its previous $430 billion forecast for the period. Its calculations combine weaker infrastructure spending by U.S. technology companies with a 10% fall in unit prices for South Korean semiconductors.
The potential setback contrasts with the strength of South Korea’s latest quarterly performance. Preliminary figures released Tuesday put third-quarter real GDP growth at 1% from the preceding quarter, compared with the BOK’s August projection of 0.3%. Before rounding, the expansion was 0.97%.
Strong semiconductor exports and investment drove that result. Computers, electronics and optical equipment generated approximately 60% of the contribution to annual growth. Within that contribution, semiconductors alone represented an estimated half.
With chips making up around half of South Korea’s exports, the BOK assessment highlights concerns about the economy’s dependence on the sector.
The analysis was provided in writing to lawmaker Ahn Do-geol. Rather than presenting a new central forecast, the BOK examined a pessimistic case in which U.S. technology groups pull back from their rapid infrastructure expansion.
To establish the reference path for its calculations, the bank used capital expenditure by Amazon, Google, Microsoft, Meta and Oracle. Together, those companies spent $40 billion last year; their combined outlays are estimated at $80 billion this year and projected to reach $110 billion next year.
The BOK treated that spending path as its baseline, then calculated the consequences for South Korea if the expansion stalled. The resulting export shortfall was measured against earlier forecasts, with the assumed semiconductor price decline forming another part of the downside case.
The bank nevertheless stressed that both future AI demand and the direction of the wider memory-chip cycle remain highly uncertain.
