FSS Expects Loan Growth to Support Thai Bank’s Earnings in 3Q22

The Thai banking sector is widely expected to report some growth on a yearly basis, following the economic recovery from July when Thailand reopened its border.


Tisco Financial Group Public Company Limited (SET: TISCO) reported a 13.52% net profit growth last week from a recovery in core business. Meanwhile, loans resumed growth by 4.8% from the previous quarter, mainly due to SMEs loans and auto title loans, all of which contributed to an improvement in net interest income of 4.2% (YoY). Moreover, fee income from bancassurance business strongly improved by 44.3% (YoY) following the new business expansion aligning to Thai economic recovery.


Finansia Syrus Securities (FSS) expected Thai bank’s earnings season for 3Q22 to decrease by 1% on a quarterly basis due to seasonality. However, the sector would jump by 24% on a yearly basis due to healthy loan growth (+4% Y-Y) and significantly lower provisioning, which should help offset lower non-NII and higher operating expenses.

FSS believed NIM will widen in the future, in line with the economy and the rate uptrend, while asset quality should remain manageable. Also, banks have set aside provisions in advance. FSS maintained its Overweight rating on banks BBL and KTB as its top picks.


According to the consensus from Refinitiv, KTB is expected to report highest growth this quarter, followed by TTB and KBANK.

2Q22 3Q21 3Q22 Est. % YoY
Target Price
BAY 7,833.75 6,361.56 7,821.00 22.94 37.13
BBL 6,961.07 6,909.20 7,849.50 13.61 161.15
KBANK 10,793.75 8,630.61 11,039.20 27.91 179.06
KKP 2,033.28 1,477.77 1,826.67 23.61 83.42
KTB 8,358.39 5,054.98 7,489.80 48.17 16.43
SCB 10,050.64 8,818.00 11,085.00 25.71 134.59
TISCO 1,848.43 1,560.45 1,771 (Actual) 13.5 104
TTB 3,438.33 2,358.65 3,198.67 35.61 1.41