Maybank Turns Negative on Thailand’s Tourism Sector amid Uncertain Recovery

Thailand’s currently-booming tourism industry could run out of steam by the first half of next year, said Maybank Securities on Wednesday.

Maybank Securities (Thailand) (MST) downgrades the sector to NEGATIVE following a jump in share prices in anticipation of the 4Q22 high season, which is expected to boost occupancy and room rates. Looking ahead, Maybank foresee challenges in 2023, including: 1) pent-up demand that, according to the Tourism Authority of Thailand, could wane in 1H23, and 2) continued high costs, which has dragged down EBITDA margins in 3Q22.

MINT, however, is Maybank’s only BUY and Top Pick due to the strong performance of its European hotels (60% of hotel revenues), which allowed it to make an amazing THB2 billion profit in 3Q22. Unlike Thai hoteliers, who rely mostly on foreign tourists (80-90%), MINT’s European clients are mainly domestic (50-60%) and more resilient.