Kaohoon Morning Brief – 6 February 2023

1) KSS expected stocks with unique drivers to leads SET Index to bounce back

Krungsri Securities (KSS) expected Thailand’s SET Index to move between 1,680 – 1,695 points as the market showed concerns over the Fed’s movement after a strong U.S. job report that largely beat expectations while the unemployment rate fell to 3.4% and wages rose, resulting in rising U.S. dollars and bond yield. Meanwhile, declining crude oil prices reflected negative sentiment to the market. Still, the analyst expected speculative buy on stocks with specific catalysts to lead the SET Index into a bounce back.


2) Goldman Sachs expects one more hike for Fed as cycle could come to a stop if inflation falls

After the rate decisions of Fed, BoE and ECB last week, Goldman Sachs expected only another 25 basis points to a terminal rate of 4.75-5% before coming to a stop. The central bank’s statement indicates ongoing rate hikes will be appropriate, however, the Fed also acknowledged disinflation is underway and Fed’s chair Jerome Powell suggested further rate hikes will be determined meeting-by-meeting.

The Wall Street bank expected a pause in rate actions after a final hike in March if inflation falls further.


3) IMF says China’s real estate problems remain unsolved

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) said that China needs to do more in order to fix its real estate problems. As Chinese authorities started to ease restrictions on financing for the sector in recent months.

Thomas Helbling, deputy director in the IMF’s Asia Pacific Department told CNBC that the issue regarding a number of projects of unfinished housing more broadly is not yet addressed.