Kaohoon Morning Brief – 11 July 2023

1) KSS expects SET Index to move slightly above 1,500 level as Fed signals for inching closer to ending rate cycle

Krungsri Securities (KSS) expected Thailand’s SET Index to move up and down at a resistance level of 1,505-1,510 points. The market will receive a positive sentiment from the recovery in regional markets as Fed’s officials sent signals that the end for rate cycle is near. Meanwhile, investors are speculating on specific stocks that have a potential to report strong 2Q23 earnings. Still, there could be a selloff to de-risk before the announcement of U.S. inflation and Thailand’s voting for PM.


2) NY Fed’s inflation expectations show 3.8% reading over the next 12 months

The New York Federal Reserve’s inflation expectations survey shows consumers in June expected 3.8% inflation over the next 12 months, down from 4.1% in a survey made in May and 6.8% one year ago.

Three-year forward inflation expectations were just below 3% in June, down from 3.6% a year ago.


3) China’s PBOC to extend stimulus packages for the property sector until end of 2024

China’s central bank decided to extend some stimulus policies that support the property sector until the end of 2024 as the current rescue packages fail to gain traction to revive the sector. Meanwhile, the markets are also expecting more stimulus packages to be rolled out soon as well.

The People’s Bank of China (PBOC) made an attempt to rescue the sector last November with 16 supporting measures for the cash-strapped property sector. The measures include loan repayment extensions which was expected to ease a liquidity crisis in the sector.