Kaohoon Morning Brief – 7 December 2023

Tisco Securities (Tisco) expected a weak trading session for Thailand’s SET Index following the same direction of Asian markets after weaker-than-expected US private payrolls, which raised concerns over recession. Meanwhile, the decline in oil prices below $70 a barrel to the lowest level in five months would pressure Thai energy stocks and the investment today. The analyst also pointed out that the Thai stock market is expected to pause after three-straight days of gaining.


Crude oil prices dropped below $70 for the first time since June 2023. Prices are now nearly 30% below September 28th high of $95.38 a barrel. This is despite OPEC+ agreement to extend production cuts into the first quarter next year as markets and analysts were disappointed with the amount of cuts.

Meanwhile, the national average gas price is down for 10 weeks in a row to $3.25/gallon.


After downgrading China’s credit outlook, Moody’s also downgraded its outlook on Hong Kong and Macau to negative from stable.

Moreover, Moody’s has cut its outlook for eight top Chinese banks to negative from stable as well.


Deutsche Bank expected the first rate cut for the European Central Bank earlier on April 24, two months ahead of its previous forecast. Still, there is also a chance that a cut could happen as early as March. Deutsche Bank expected ECB to cut 150bp in 2024, 50bp more from its previous prediction with a 50bp cuts back-to-back in April and June.