Kaohoon Morning Brief – 5 January 2024

Finansia Syrus Securities (FSS) expected Thailand’s SET Index to move in a sideways to sideways-up trend within the range of 1,430-1,440 points. Global markets are lacking positive catalysts as investors are monitoring the U.S. non-farm payroll data for December tonight. The figure will impact market’s expectation and probability for an anticipation of the Fed to cut interest rates in March. As for the domestic factor, the analyst recommended investors to monitor inflation data for December, which is expected to be lower than the Bank of Thailand’s target range.


China’s 10-year yield fell to the lowest level in four years as traders are betting on more monetary easing from the People’s Bank of China this year, while weak economic recovery put more pressure on the government to cut interest rates and inject more liquidity.


Expectations for interest rate cut from the Federal Reserve in March and 2024 is waning, following ADP jobs added more than expected, while slowing wage growth and initial jobless claims were at 2023 lows.

The markets ended 2023 with expectations for six rate cuts in 2024, but after the report of job data yesterday, expectations were cut to five. Meanwhile, the Fed’s dot plot indicated three cuts.