Analysts Maintain Positive Views on ‘Thai Oil’, Seeing Slight Impact from CDU Shutdown

At the end of the morning session, TOP rose by 0.49% or THB 0.25 to THB 51.75, with a trading value of THB 96.47 million, following the announcement early today that the unplanned maintenance will not impact the timeline of its Clean Fuel Project (CFP).


Land and House Securities stated that Thai Oil Public Company Limited (SET: TOP) has notified the stoppage of its Crude Distillation Unit-3 (CDU-3), with the distilling power of 180,000 barrels per day, after experiencing technical problems since 16 January, the total amount of 13 days, in order to repair and recover the work force units, while the company has developed plans and taken actions to limit supply disruption impacts to its customers. As a result, the above incident does not impact the construction and start-up timeline of the Clean Fuel Project (CFP).

The issue was reported last Friday and caused TOP’s share price to drop by approximately 3%, as from a tentative estimation. The halt of CDU-3 is expected to have little impact, as the annual profit is expected to be affected by only 1-2%. The trend for distillation in 1Q24TD is positive on a quarter-on-quarter basis and benefits from the declining Crude Premium. This will drive the overall profit in 1Q24 to be back on a positive note QoQ. Moreover, as TOP is close to finishing the CFP project, the distilling power is expected to largely rise. The securities company noted that the current decreasing stock value is a good opportunity to “BUY” the stock. 


Meanwhile, Tisco Securities expected 1.6% of impact to TOP’s bottom line, based on its 2024 forecast earnings from the shutdown. Still, the firm believed that it is unlikely to affect the Clean Fuel  Project (CFP)’s construction and startup timeline.

Tisco Securities maintained “BUY” recommendation on TOP with a target price at THB 63.00 per share.