Kaohoon Morning Brief – 18 January 2024

Krungsri Securities (KSS) expected the Thai stock market to move on a weaker trend at the resistance level of 1,370-1,375 points as the probability for a Fed’s rate cut in March deteriorated following higher US retail sales at 5.6% YoY. This led to a rise in bond yield and US dollar. Meanwhile, slower growth for the Chinese economy in the final quarter of last year also pressured fund flows and investment. The analyst maintained a “Selective Buy” recommendation.


US December retail sales beat across the board with 5.6% YoY vs. 4.0% estimated and 4.1% in November. On a monthly basis, sales increased 0.6% vs. 0.4% expected and 0.3% in November.

Core retail sales on a monthly basis came in hotter-than-expected at 0.4% for December vs. 0.2% expected and 0.2% in November.

Following higher retail sales that led to a rise in bond yield and US dollar, the probability for a Fed rate cut in March continued to decline to 55% from 65% yesterday.


The Bank of America noted that hope for global rate cuts were lost at the Red Sea as shipping costs have increased up to three times for certain routes. Meanwhile, inflationary pressures may be larger in Europe, but non-negligible for the U.S.