Following their analyst briefing, CGS International Securities (Thailand) (CGSI) states that the company remains cautious about the overall economic outlook for the rest of 2025. AIS maintains its full-year targets, anticipating 3-5% core service revenue growth (vs. 1Q25 6.3% growth) and 3-5% EBITDA growth (vs. 1Q25 7.6% growth). The company’s CAPEX target for 2025 remains unchanged at THB 26-27 billion.
AIS management is confident that the net loss of mobile subscribers will not continue, noting net additions in April 2025, and anticipates positive mobile ARPU growth through strategies like uplifting entry packages and focusing on quality subscribers. The prepaid/postpaid revenue mix was 45:55 in 1Q25, which AIS considers appropriate, with no target to change this mix.
Regarding partnerships, the agreement with JAS for broadcasting the EPL will operate under a revenue-sharing model. AIS is not concerned about the soft handset sale margin of 4.3% in 1Q25, still targeting over 5% for 2025, with handset subsidies supported by both AIS and vendors.
Enterprise revenue growth is expected to maintain its double-digit target for 2025, though quarterly results may vary depending on project completion and corporate spending trends. CGSI believes AIS’ performance is sensitive to domestic economic activities rather than global trade wars, noting potential impacts from slower customer spending on mobile and broadband services in the medium term, despite a healthy 2Q25F outlook.
CGSI retains a Hold recommendation on AIS with a 2025F target price of THB 291.
Meanwhile, Kasikorn Securities (KS) wrote in a note after the announcement of AIS’ financial statement yesterday with a positive view of its robust results and upbeat operating guidance for the rest of the year despite the fact that the growth rates appear softer and macroeconomic headwinds are getting worse for the second half of the year.
The firm stated that it will revisit its financial projection post the post-results meeting tomorrow morning. KS reiterates its Neutral rating and end-2025 target price of THB 283.42 for now.
