Nintendo unveiled its first sales outlook for its upcoming Switch 2 console, projecting 15 million units sold in the fiscal year ending March 2026, as the Japanese entertainment powerhouse readies its most important hardware launch in nearly a decade.
The guidance comes as investors sift through a mixed set of fourth-quarter earnings. Nintendo reported revenue of JPY 208.7 billion ($1.45 billion) for the quarter ended March 31, missing LSEG analyst consensus of 216.16 billion yen, while net profit surpassed forecasts at JPY 41.6 billion, compared with estimates of JPY 33.91 billion.
Nonetheless, revenue slumped almost 25% and profit plunged by nearly half compared to a year ago, a result widely expected as consumers deferred purchases ahead of the Switch 2 release.
Sales of the original Switch console fell sharply to 10.8 million units in the last fiscal year, dropping 31% year-on-year and coming in just below Nintendo’s own already-reduced projection of 11 million.
Looking ahead, Nintendo expects net sales to rebound to JPY 1.9 trillion for the current fiscal year—a 63% jump from last year but narrowly missing market estimates. Full-year net profit is projected to rise to JPY 300 billion yen, again trailing analyst expectations.
All forecasts, the company cautioned, are based on U.S. tariff rates as of April 10, reflecting lingering uncertainty as President Donald Trump’s reciprocal tariffs pause reaching expiration. Nintendo, which manufactures most of its consoles in Vietnam, faces duties that could rise to 46% for the U.S.-bound units.
In April, Nintendo postponed Switch 2 pre-orders stateside following the initial tariff announcement. Company president Shuntaro Furukawa warned additional levies or pricing shifts could hit American demand and slash profits by tens of billions of yen.
Investors are now intently focused on the launch and market reception of the Switch 2, set to debut in June at an opening price of $449.99 in the U.S.
The new console will roll out alongside two major titles—“Mario Kart World” and “Nintendo Switch 2 Welcome Tour”—with more fan favorites like “Zelda: Breath of the Wild” getting Switch 2 upgrades. Software remains central to the strategy, with Nintendo targeting 45 million game sales for the new device’s first fiscal year.
Introduced in 2017, the original Switch became Nintendo’s second-best-selling console, logging lifetime shipments above 150 million and driving sales of iconic franchises including Mario and Pokemon.
Nintendo has extended its reach into film and other intellectual property, helping shares climb 30% so far this year and 64% over the past 12 months.
