According to an analysis by KGI Securities, Bangkok Dusit Medical Services Public Company Limited (SET: BDMS) is on track to continue its strong earnings momentum after delivering a record-high net profit in the first quarter of 2025.
The analyst anticipated further year-on-year earnings growth in the second quarter, with the company expected to deliver its strongest quarterly performance in the third quarter, driven by seasonal factors.
Key highlights from BDMS’ recent analyst meeting underscored robust growth in international patient volumes so far this quarter. In contrast to the prior year, the second quarter of 2025 is not expected to see a drag from reduced international patient traffic, as the Ramadan holiday—previously a headwind—concluded in March this year, compared to a longer period for the holiday during April in 2024.
The Middle East patient segment saw standout growth, rising 45% year-on-year. From April through May 21, BDMS reported overall revenue growth of 5-7% year-on-year, fueled by solid performances in Bangkok hospitals (+5%) and locations in provincial areas (+7%). This growth was aided in part by an earlier onset of the rainy season and an increase in influenza and respiratory illnesses.
Management highlighted BDMS’ industry-leading EBITDA margin, targeting 24-25% for this year—one of the highest among global peers with annual revenues exceeding THB 100 billion. In 2024, BDMS delivered an EBITDA margin of 24.3%, outpacing competitors reporting 22-23%.
The company also benefits from a well-diversified patient base, with no single country contributing more than 3% of total revenue among its top five nationalities: Cambodia, China, the U.S., the U.K., and Myanmar. International patients as a group accounted for 19% of revenue, reflecting resilience against demand swings from any single market.
Looking ahead, KGI forecasts BDMS’ revenue will climb 7% annually in 2025 and 2026, propelled by ongoing growth from international patients and its extensive Center of Excellence (CoE) offerings. The CoE segment contributed 57% of total revenue and 60% of EBITDA last year.
Gross margins are projected to remain strong at 36% for 2025-26, with two new hospital openings anticipated in 2026.
Reaffirming its bullish stance, the brokerage firm maintains an ‘Outperform’ rating on BDMS, setting a 2025 DCF-based target price of THB 32.00 per share.
