Following a two-day marketing trip to the U.K. last week, investors remain wary but interested in deep value opportunities in Thai equities, according to CLSA’s latest report.
The marketing trip included discussions with ten funds and representatives from six Thai companies on non-deal roadshows (NDRs), with politics and market turning points dominating the conversation.
The general investor mood was one of caution as political risk continues to cloud the macro outlook. Despite this, there is notable appetite for stocks trading at substantial discounts, especially names such as Bangchak Corporation (BCP), Central Pattana (CPN), and PTT Global Chemical (PTTGC).
Some investors remain positioned in defensive sectors, holding shares in True Corporation (TRUE), CP ALL (CPALL), and Kasikornbank (KBANK) but are increasingly inclined toward value picks that do not carry overhang concerns.
The discussion focused on particular interest in Thailand’s political trajectory, with key talking points including the recent passage of the 2026 budget bill, judicial proceedings regarding Thaksin Shinawatra’s parole and lese-majesty case, and ongoing scrutiny of the 2024 Senate election process following allegations of vote rigging and collusion.
Additionally, while a potential cabinet reshuffle in the coming weeks was noted, CLSA does not expect it to have a material impact on the market.
Many investors believe that negative headlines have already been absorbed by share prices, especially among those with deep discounts to fair value.
BCP and PTTGC were highlighted for their respective discounts to replacement value and price-to-book, while the recent Allnex impairment at PTTGC is seen as alleviating legacy risks. CPN also garnered attention for the resilience of its business model, governance, and attractive PE levels.
While some traders are still hesitant to pile into bank stocks due to Thailand’s fragile economy, select defensive names like CPALL, CPN, and OSP remain popular, as suggested by the analyst.
On the cyclical front, BCP was generally preferred over TOP, given operational delays at the latter’s Clean Fuel Project, while IVL stood out versus PTTGC due to its deleveraging efforts and stronger operating profile.
Investors differentiated between Thailand’s long-term structural challenges—such as high household and public debt, an aging demographic, and lack of new industries—and short-term setbacks tied to adverse events impacting tourism and healthcare.
Despite the near-term drag, most believe Thailand’s natural assets and cultural appeal position it well for a rebound in both tourism and international healthcare flows.
Following these, although second-quarter results are forecast to soften both quarter-on-quarter and year-on-year across most sectors, investors are focusing on the longer-term potential of fundamentally strong companies with discounted valuations.
CLSA noted that it had limited pushback to their recommended defensive plays, or to preferred cyclical stocks, as international funds continue to monitor the evolving Thai landscape for bargains.
