As per an analysis by KGI Securities (KGI), a series of military strikes in the Middle East has rattled energy markets, prompting analysts to revise crude price forecasts upward and boost projections for key energy stocks.
The recent escalation began on June 13 when Israel carried out air raids on Iranian locations associated with its nuclear program. Since then, both nations have exchanged retaliatory attacks, deepening regional instability.
The conflict intensified further on June 22 as the United States struck three Iranian nuclear facilities, including the Fordow, Isfahan, and Natanz sites. With Iran’s crude output at 3.35 million barrels per day as of May—representing roughly 4% of the world’s oil supply, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)—investors are increasingly wary of supply disruptions from this vital oil-producing hub.
Alarm is also growing over the possibility of Iran shutting the Strait of Hormuz, through which approximately a fifth of global oil exports pass. Iranian lawmakers signaled this risk by approving the closure of the strait on the evening of June 22.
Responding to these heightened geopolitical risks, KGI has increased the earnings forecasts for Thailand’s PTT Exploration and Production (SET: PTTEP), anticipating an 8% rise in 2025 profit to 66.9 billion baht, and a 15% improvement for 2026, taking earnings to 65.2 billion baht.
These adjustments are underpinned by higher crude price assumptions, with the Dubai crude forecast raised from $70 to $75 per barrel for 2025, and from $65 to $70 for 2026. The long-term crude price forecast has also been lifted to $65 per barrel.
Drawing parallels to the spike in oil prices following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022, when Dubai crude surged from $93 to $127 per barrel within weeks, the analyst now expects Dubai crude to reach a high of roughly $90 per barrel in the wake of Israel’s June 13 airstrikes on Iran. The benchmark has already advanced to about $75 per barrel, marking an increase from $70 prior to the attacks.
Additionally, PTTEP’s 2025 target price has been revised upward to 140 baht per share from 120 baht, based on discounted cash flow analysis. The stock has also been upgraded to ‘Outperform’ from ‘Neutral’. Attractive dividend yields are anticipated, with estimates of 7.7% and 7.5% for 2025 and 2026, respectively.
KGI noted that every $5 per barrel rise in Dubai crude price could boost PTTEP’s 2025 net profit by 5.1 billion baht—an increase of 8%—and raise the target price by 2 baht per share.
As of 10:23 AM (Bangkok time) on Monday, the share price of PTTEP rose by 2.27% or THB 2.50 to THB 112.50, with a trading value of THB 829.42 million.
