On Monday at 10:52 AM (Bangkok time), the share price of Krungthai Card Public Company Limited (SET: KTC) slumped by 14.39% or THB 5.00 to THB 29.75, with a trading value of THB 512.02 million.
Notably, KTC has 16.30% of its shares pledged in the margin account compared with paid-up shares as of 31 May 2025. Markets are speculating that the decline in Thai stock exchange could lead to a forced sale in the margin account.
UOB Kay Hian Securities (Thailand) (UOBKH) noted that following the plunge of KTC’s shares to the floor limit of THB 29.75 per share (-15%) during the morning session, there was no significant news or fundamental change that led to the sharp decline as far as the company concerned.
Regarding the Big Lot transaction of 1 million KTC shares at THB 34.75 per share this morning—slightly below Friday’s closing price of THB 35.00—the total transaction was worth THB 34.75 million. UOBKH’s preliminary assessment is that the transaction is unlikely to have a significant impact on KTC’s overall share price as the price was not meaningfully different from the previous close.
While KTC’s removal from the MSCI Global Standard Index, effective May 30, 2025, could exert medium-term pressure on the stock due to potential outflows from passive funds, the analyst does not consider this the primary driver behind the steep drop, as the market had already digested and responded to the news upon initial announcement.
At this time, the cause of the significant share price drop on Monday remains unclear. Fundamentally, KTC’s management reiterates that there have been no changes. UOBKH stated it will continue to monitor the situation closely for any new information or fundamental developments.
The brokerage firm maintains a ‘Buy’ recommendation for KTC, with a target price of THB 58 per share.
As for SBI Thai Online Securities (SBITO), the analyst disclosed that KTC reported 1Q25 net profit growth of 3.2% year-on-year to THB 1.861 billion, driven by a larger personal loan portfolio, higher fee income, and reduced credit losses. Total revenue increased by 1.0% year-on-year to THB 6.832 billion, supported by a 3.4% year-on-year increase in interest income from personal loans, in line with the expanding loan portfolio.
Additionally, credit card fee income reached THB 1.656 billion, up 7.25% year-on-year, driven by higher interchange transactions, cash advances, and merchant fees. Credit losses for the quarter declined by 5.3% year-on-year to THB 1.594 billion, in line with the company’s stringent risk control measures.
Outlook for 2Q25 remains positive with expected low-single-digit year-on-year growth, supported by the expansion of the credit card customer base under targeted marketing strategies. Asset quality is anticipated to remain solid, with non-performing loans (NPLs) projected to stay below 2%, in line with company targets. Fee income is also forecast to rebound as credit card spending recovers.
The company acknowledges that Thailand’s economic growth has not met expectations, weighing on its overall business performance. However, KTC continues to outperform the wider market, supported by strategic promotions with business partners that align with customer demand. For 2025, the company maintains its net profit forecast above THB 7.437 billion, projects a 10% increase in card spending, expects total loan portfolio growth of around 4-5%, and aims to keep NPLs below 2%.
