KGI Securities (KGI) stated in its report that the Stock Exchange of Thailand (SET) is likely to continue underperforming global peers as domestic political turmoil overshadows positive international developments.
The brokerage firm noted that its June model portfolio slumped 7.4%, lagging the SET Index’s 5.5% drop, as market sentiment soured amid concerns over the country’s political stability, notably the Bhumjaithai Party’s exit from the coalition government and the resurfacing of a controversial audio clip involving the Thai prime minister and a Cambodian leader.
Heightened tension in the Middle East, following a swift U.S. strike on Iranian nuclear facilities, added to volatility but was quickly resolved. These domestic and geopolitical factors more than offset optimism over anticipated U.S. trade deals ahead of the July 9 deadline.
Looking ahead to July, KGI expects the SET Index to move sideways, cautioning that persistent political uncertainty will likely keep Thai stocks in check despite improving global conditions, such as a ceasefire between Israel and Iran and a recently signed U.S.-China trade pact.
As robust export activities are expected to fade in the near term, the analyst maintains a cautious view on Thailand’s economic growth, reiterating its 2025 GDP forecast of 1.9%, and considers the Bank of Thailand’s outlook too optimistic.
Following these developments, KGI highlights several stock picks for July, including PTT Global Chemical (PTTGC), Thai Oil (TOP), Osotspa (OSP), Synex (Thailand) (SYNEX), and Central Plaza Hotel (CENTEL).
PTTGC and TOP are expected to benefit from higher refinery margins and improved product spreads, while OSP is forecasted to outperform thanks to solid market share gains and resilient margins.
SYNEX is seen gaining from strong upcoming sales momentum, and CENTEL could attract short-term interest from the government’s tourism stimulus measures.
