Kiatnakin Phatra Securities (KKPS) expects lackluster year-on-year earnings for Thailand’s listed property developers in the second quarter, although quarterly results should show some signs of improvement.
For 2Q25, KKPS sees only Land and Houses Public Company Limited (SET: LH) reporting year-on-year net profit growth—up 42%—primarily due to a one-off gain from the divestment of a U.S. apartment, with the transaction delivering THB 560 million in post-tax gains. Nevertheless, LH’s core profit is expected to continue falling, down 15% quarter-on-quarter, although 2Q should mark the company’s earnings peak for the year.
By contrast, Sansiri Public Company Limited (SET: SIRI) is forecasted to report the highest core profit among peers at THB 1.1 billion for the second quarter, an 82% quarter-on-quarter surge, driven by improved residential sales and reduced SG&A expenses.
Supalai Public Company Limited (SET: SPALI) follows, with an estimate of THB 1.07 billion—up 164% quarter-on-quarter—supported by rising sales and increased equity income from overseas projects. AP (Thailand) Public Company Limited (SET: AP)’s core profit is projected at THB 940 million, a modest 9% sequential increase, while LH is expected to post THB 869 million, a 19% bounce from 1Q’s 13-year low.
Gross margins on residential sales are expected to remain soft in the second quarter, coming in at 31.0% for SPALI, 29.9% for AP, 29.6% for SIRI, and 27.0% for LH.
Regarding interim dividends, KKPS forecasts a payout of THB 0.25–0.40 for SPALI, THB 0.13 for LH, and THB 0.05 for SIRI, with AP maintaining its no-interim-dividend policy.
Aggregate presales among leading developers are anticipated to reach THB 43 billion in the second quarter, down 33% year-on-year and 25% quarter-on-quarter—a level reminiscent of the 2020 Covid-19 slump, yet still higher than figures seen before the 2024 political upheaval and the 2011 floods, thanks to market share consolidation.
While landed homes and low-rise condominiums have shown some resilience, KKPS cautions that the broader market will face an uneven recovery in the second half of 2025, with inventory overhang and developers scaling back new project launches. Nonetheless, SIRI, SPALI, and AP are seen as best positioned to lead the upturn through to year-end.
KKPS has revised the 2025 and 2026 core profit projections, cutting AP’s estimates by 6% and 4%, and LH’s by 9% and 2%, respectively, citing soft residential sales and thinner profit margins. The target price for AP has also been lowered to THB 8.0 (from THB 8.5), and for LH to THB 4.0 (from THB 4.4).
Additionally, the analyst reiterates a ‘Neutral’ rating on AP and ‘Underperform’ on LH. ‘Buy’ ratings are maintained on SPALI for its robust portfolio and solid balance sheet, and on SIRI for its attractive valuation and improved refinancing outlook following its successful June perpetual bond issuance, with target prices at THB 20.00 and THB 1.56, respectively.
