Thai Airways International Public Company Limited (THAI) is firmly on track for a robust recovery following a sweeping financial and operational restructuring that has repositioned the national carrier as a net cash company and set the stage for significant expansion and earnings growth.
Tisco Securities has initiated coverage of Thai Airways with a ‘BUY’ rating and a target price of THB 10.40 per share, citing improved balance sheet strength and an earnings trajectory set to accelerate over the next three years.
Revenue is projected to increase 3%, 6%, and 13%, respectively, in 2025, 2026, and 2027, while core profit is forecast to grow at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 8.6%. The company now benefits from a structurally lower debt burden, having reduced outstanding liabilities from over THB 400 billion to THB 95 billion as of the first quarter of 2025 following a successful debt-to-equity conversion, and boasts a dominant 22% market share at Suvarnabhumi Airport (BKK).
Yuanta Securities echoed this bullish stance, giving THAI a target price of THB 10.70 per share. The brokerage firm highlights Thai Airways’ transformation from a struggling state enterprise into a transparent, agile private entity, now holding over THB 125 billion in cash and sufficient liquidity for its investment strategy in the coming years.
Shareholder equity turned positive at THB 55 billion, and in 2024, EBITDA after lease expenses doubled to THB 42 billion compared to targets in its rehabilitation plan. Cuts to personnel costs—a reduction to just 9.7% of revenue—have further improved cost efficiency.
Looking ahead, THAI is targeting aggressive fleet expansion, planning to nearly double its fleet from 78 aircraft in early 2025 to 150 by 2033. Orders are already in place for 45 Boeing jets, with additional plans to lease 32 Airbus aircraft, supporting anticipated growth in the Asia-Pacific and European markets.
Strategic collaborations, such as a Joint Business Agreement (JBA) with Turkish Airlines and partnerships with Airports of Thailand (AOT), will further expand Thai Airways’ international network and reinforce its ambition to make Thailand a regional aviation hub.
Yuanta forecasts Thai Airways’ core profit to reach THB 28 billion in 2025, rising to THB 31 billion by 2027. This robust outlook is underpinned by expanding capacity, continued cost discipline, favorable oil price trends, and diminishing debt service obligations.
Analysts note that Thai Airways’ improving fundamentals, strategic expansion, and effective cost management put the carrier in a strong position to reclaim market share and deliver substantial shareholder value in the aviation sector’s next phase of growth.
