CGS International Securities (Thailand) (CGSI) noted that same-store sales growth (SSSG) among listed Thai retailers remained in negative territory in August 2025, though performance showed improvement compared to July.
Evaluating a group of eight leading retail companies, the analyst found an uptick in SSSG for BigC, 7-Eleven, Lotus’s, Central Retail Corporation (SET: CRC), and Siam Global House (SET: GLOBAL), while Makro held steady.
In contrast, MegaHome and Dohome (SET: DOHOME) continued to see declines, primarily due to the ongoing border conflict between Thailand and Cambodia. Notably, Moshi Moshi Retail Corporation (SET: MOSHI) stood out with an estimated 7% rise in SSSG, exceeding initial forecasts.
The improvement in same-store sales during August was largely attributed to calendar effects rather than a genuine recovery in consumer purchasing power.
August featured 12 weekend days, compared to 10 in the same month last year, which provided a particular boost to specialty and luxury retailers. CGSI noted that sales on weekends are typically 10-20% higher than weekday averages for non-essential goods, and 5-10% higher for staples.
The additional two weekend days likely contributed 0.6-1.3 percentage points to SSSG for luxury retailers and 0.3-0.6 points for consumer goods retailers, with convenience stores benefitting further—some in tourist areas reporting sales gains of up to 20-30%.
Looking ahead, CGSI anticipates headwinds for retailers in September 2025, as the month includes only eight weekend days versus nine the previous year. This reduction is expected to dampen both spending and market sentiment. Still, retailers specializing in essential goods are expected to maintain stable sales, supported by the Chinese Hungry Ghost Festival, with CP Axtra (SET: CPAXT) likely to benefit most given that food accounts for 36.8% of its sales mix.
The brokerage firm cautioned that recent sales improvement is mainly a consequence of low bases and seasonal factors, not a signal of genuine demand recovery. As a result, overall retail sector profit growth is expected to remain constrained, maintaining a ‘Neutral’ investment rating on Thai retail stocks.
CP All (SET: CPALL) and MOSHI were identified as top picks due to their positive prospects: CPALL is seen as attractively valued at a 2025 P/E of 14.7x—well below its three-year average—and is projected to deliver strong earnings growth of 12.8% annually from 2024-2027; MOSHI is the only retailer expected to see repeated earnings upgrades thanks to sustained strong SSSG momentum.
However, CGSI warns of downside risks from weak consumption and lingering political uncertainty, whereas a faster-than-expected revival in tourism or consumer spending represents potential upside for the sector.
