Krungsri Securities (KSS) maintains a positive stance on Bangkok Dusit Medical Services Public Company Limited (SET: BDMS), continuing to identify the company as its preferred pick in the sector.
The analyst highlights BDMS’s nationwide hospital network and the largest bed capacity market share as strategic assets underpinning long-term growth, though the shares of the company have underperformed the broader healthcare group this quarter—dropping 1% quarter-to-date compared to the group’s 7% gain.
BDMS reported a 3-4% year-on-year drop in overall medical revenue for July and August as patient volumes moderated from last year’s influenza-driven high base. That slowdown was most evident among domestic patients, while revenue from foreign patients, particularly from Cambodia, also softened.
However, KSS expects the burden from last year’s high epidemic base to ease in the fourth quarter, with the onset of Thailand’s tourism high season providing support. BDMS’s hospital networks in key tourist destinations such as Phuket, Rayong, Pattaya, and Chiang Mai stand to benefit from a rise in international patient traffic.
To accelerate outpatient growth, BDMS is set to open 11 additional community clinics in Bangkok and regional centers during the second half of the year, pushing its total clinic count past 70 by year’s end. The expansion is aimed at boosting OPD utilization and increasing social security patient volumes.
BDMS is also leveraging cross-border medical collaborations, with ongoing partnerships involving institutions in the U.S., Germany, France, Japan, and Kuwait. Notably, three hospitals within its network—Bangkok Hospital Research Center, Samitivej Sriracha Hospital, and Phyathai 2 Hospital—have been invited to healthcare and wellness events hosted by the Kuwaiti government this September, which could support the return of Kuwait welfare patients and lift foreign revenue streams.
Following these, KSS reiterated its ‘Buy’ rating on BDMS, citing its competitive nationwide footprint, comprehensive medical potential, and diversified patient base capable of weathering economic cycles.
However, the brokerage firm cut its 2025 target price to THB 28 (from THB 33), using a DCF valuation with a 6.7% WACC. The current 20x forward PE, now at more than 2 standard deviations below average, is seen by the analyst as reflecting near-term earnings headwinds and a softer third-quarter profit outlook.
