Ichitan Group Public Company Limited (SET: ICHI) is among the stocks expected to benefit from the anticipated revival of the “Half-Half” government co-payment scheme initiated by the new administration led by Prime Minister Anutin Charnvirakul.
Although the scheme has not yet been formally announced, ICHI shares have already begun to price in the expected surge in purchasing power. On September 5, 2025, ICHI’s stock price rose ahead of the official announcement, gaining 0.88% (or THB 0.10) to close at THB 11.50. The rally continued on the next trading day, September 8, 2025, with the share price up 6.09% (or THB 0.70) to close at THB 12.20.
The Half-Half initiative is expected to revitalize consumer purchasing power at the grassroots level, injecting liquidity into the system and providing much-needed support to the domestic economy. Any amount of stimulus, no matter how small, is viewed as a positive development compared to having no measures at all.
Given these tailwinds, ICHI’s prospects for the second half of 2025 appear more robust than the first half, potentially defying seasonal factors. In addition, the company continues to receive steady orders from OEM customers, such as coconut water producer IF, and is also supported by growth in green tea sales.
In the first half of 2025, ICHI recorded sales revenue of THB 4,009.20 million, a decrease of 9.8% year-on-year. Domestic sales dropped 13.6%, pressured by domestic economic challenges and an unusually short summer, while export sales soared 43.6% due to steady OEM orders for exported goods.
Net profit for the period stood at THB 652.41 million, down 12.1% year-on-year, with a slightly lower net profit margin of 16.3%, compared with 16.7% in the same period last year—reflecting clear signs of a slowdown.
However, in 2Q25 alone, ICHI generated sales of THB 2,263.6 million, down 1.8% year-on-year but up 29.7% from 1Q25, maintaining a level close to the previous year.
Net profit for the quarter came in at THB 407.2 million, rising 7.5% year-on-year and surging 66% from Q1, marking a record quarterly profit, partly driven by a THB 120 million gain from land sales.
Pi Securities recently upgraded its recommendation on ICHI from “Hold” to “Buy,” with a target price of THB 13.90, citing expectations of a recovery in both sales and normalized earnings on both a year-on-year and quarter-on-quarter basis. In Q3, the recovery will be driven by green tea sales growth, after the domestic ready-to-drink tea market, which is a key revenue contributor, rebounded by 2.1% in July 2025.
While the overall beverage market shrank about 2% in the first half of this year—mainly in the refreshment drinks segment such as carbonated drinks and fruit juices (impacted by milder weather due to El Niño)—a moderate rebound is expected in H2.
ICHI maintains its sales target for 2025 at THB 9.5 billion, up 10.5% year-on-year, with a focus on expanding sales channels through traditional trade (TT) and offering larger-sized products catering to value-conscious consumers—expected to boost TT channels after a 10% decline in the first seven months of the year. Convenience store (CVS) channels are expected to maintain strong growth.
However, with a conservative outlook, full-year sales are forecast to grow just 1%, recovering from -10% in H1. Normalized profit for H2 is projected to defy seasonal trends, with Q3 profit estimated at THB 375 million—a 5% year-on-year and 20% quarter-on-quarter increase—buoyed by all-time high ready-to-drink green tea sales. OEM revenue is expected to soften marginally from the previous quarter’s THB 192 million, almost entirely from IF coconut water.
ICHI continues to receive steady OEM orders, particularly for IF coconut water, and robust green tea sales are set to push capacity utilization up to 70% in H2.
Additionally, multiple brokerages have upgraded ICHI from “Hold” to “Buy,” and the share price has already responded positively to the government’s fiscal stimulus policy.
