On Monday at 11:47 AM (Bangkok time), the share price of Thai Oil Public Company Limited (SET: TOP) surged by 2.11% or THB 0.75 to THB 36.25, with a trading value of THB 679.65 million.
Star Petroleum Refining Public Company Limited (SET: SPRC) rose by 2.82% or THB 0.14 to THB 5.10, with a trading value of THB 78.84 million.
PTT Exploration and Production Public Company Limited (SET: PTTEP) increased by 0.88% or THB 1.00 to THB 114.00, with a trading value of THB 332.00 million.
Bangchak Corporation Public Company Limited (SET: BCP) grew by 1.61% or THB 0.50 to THB 31.50, with a trading value of THB 38.94 million.
Thanachart Securities highlighted that Brent crude prices climbed 0.9% to close at $66.99 per barrel, supported by several factors that bode well for the energy sector and refiners.
Key drivers include increased U.S. pressure on China and India to broaden sanctions on Russian oil, escalating Ukrainian attacks on Russia’s largest oil export port and vital energy infrastructure, and renewed calls from the U.S. for Europe to further restrict Russian energy imports.
Europe is now considering ending all Russian fuel usage, with its ban on Russian seaborne crude already slashing imports by 90%. In addition, China has introduced stricter rules to crack down on tax evasion in the refined oil market, which could force reduced utilization or even shutdowns among some refineries.
These developments are tightening global oil supply, offering positive momentum for leading Thai energy names such as PTTEP, TOP, and SPRC.
Meanwhile, Yuanta Securities (Thailand) noted that China’s recent anti-involution policies and stricter tax enforcement present new challenges for independent “teapot” refineries. Should these measures trigger downsizing or closures among teapot operators, regional supplies of refined oil products would decline, driving up refining margins.
Yuanta estimates the combined capacity of China’s teapot refineries at 3–4 million barrels per day, but with industry margins low, production had been running at around 50%. A complete halt could remove approximately 1.5–2 million barrels per day from the market—well above Thailand’s daily demand of 1.2 million barrels.
Diesel is expected to benefit most from a potential teapot refinery shutdown, given their simple refining configurations. This backdrop is viewed as a bullish catalyst for Thai refiners such as TOP, SPRC, and BCP.
Additionally, over the weekend, Ukraine launched a major drone strike targeting Russia’s energy infrastructure, deploying more than 300 drones. The assault damaged the Kirishi refinery, Russia’s second largest with a capacity of 355,000 barrels per day, about 6% of the nation’s refining output. Details on the extent of the damage and repair timeline are not yet available, but the supply disruption is expected to further constrain global markets.
