Krungsri Securities (KSS) sees a favorable outlook on Thailand’s hospital sector, citing recent progress in Kuwait’s public medical welfare program as a key catalyst.
Analysts are closely monitoring developments involving Bangkok Dusit Medical Services Public Company Limited (SET: BDMS) and Bangkok Chain Hospital Public Company Limited (SET: BCH), both of which were invited by the Kuwaiti Embassy to join the “Rediscovering Health and Wellness Tourism in Thailand” event in Kuwait from September 16-18.
Out of eight invited Thai hospitals, seven attended the event—including three hospitals within the BDMS group; World Medical Hospital under BCH; Chularat 3 International Hospital from Chularat Hospital Public Company Limited (SET: CHG); and Praram 9 Hospital under Praram 9 Hospital Public Company Limited (SET: PR9) and Piyavate Hospital.
Key positive developments include the Kuwait government’s decision to shift patient screening responsibilities from the embassy to the Kuwaiti Ministry of Health, aiming for greater oversight. Kuwait also plans to establish a Medical Office in Thailand to screen and care for Kuwaiti patients receiving treatment in the country.
Additionally, the criteria for referring patients under the Guarantee of Payment (GOP) scheme may be revised to exclude general conditions and illnesses that can be treated within Kuwait. The Ministry of Health will select specific Thai hospitals for sending Kuwaiti patients, though the number of hospitals has not yet been specified. Officials plan to visit hospitals in Thailand this October prior to final decisions.
Krungsri views these steps as positive for the medical sector, given the tangible progress in GOP referral protocols and Kuwait’s plan to evaluate Thai hospitals next month. This suggests potential for a resumption in Kuwaiti GOP patients being treated in Thailand.
In 2023, prior to the suspension of patient transfers, the Thai hospitals deriving the highest revenue proportion from Kuwaiti patients were BCH (6.4%), Bumrungrad Hospital Public Company Limited (SET: BH) (6%), BDMS (0.7%), and CHG (0.5%). Treatments for Kuwaiti GOP patients commonly involve complex cases such as neurological, cardiac, diabetic wound, vascular, and orthopedic conditions.
The analyst notes that a crucial point to watch is how many and which hospitals will be selected by Kuwait’s Ministry of Health for future referrals.
For now, KSS maintains a ‘Neutral’ stance on the sector, forecasting that combined sector net profit will edge up by 1% year-on-year in 2025, followed by a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 5% from 2025 to 2027. Key drivers include an aging population, expansion of government-sponsored healthcare programs, and the potential return of international patients, particularly under the GOP scheme.
The report also highlights a potential positive catalyst for hospitals serving social security patients, as a new phase of contribution deductions—scheduled for 2026–2028—could lead to higher compensation rates. Following these, Krungsri favors BDMS, assigning a ‘Buy’ rating with a target price of THB 28 per share, and sets a target price of THB 17 for BCH.
